Chester May Meeting Day Two Tips: Lincoln Park could blossom into a win

Tony Calvin
08 May 2019

Tony Calvin returns with two bets on the second day of the Chester May Meeting

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Resident tipster Tony Calvin returns to give his best bets on Ladies Day at Chester. One of his picks could be boosted by the rain...

"He is now just 2lb higher than when winning at Haydock, and the re-booking of the ever-excellent Silvestre De Sousa (on board the colt when he won on his debut for Appleby at Pontefract, where he also made all) is an obvious positive, as are the softening conditions and the step back in trip."

Reflecting on soft ground no-shows

Let's go from the top again and start with the opening 5f handicap at 13:50, where we already have two non-runners. No surprise that they were drawn 10 and 12 of 13, though the official reason given for their withdrawal was the softening ground.

It will also come as no shock to anyone that Copper Knight heads the betting from stall one, as he has the blistering early pace to take advantage of that plum position (when on song anyway), he is a course-and-distance winner, he handles soft ground well, and he comes here after a good comeback run.

He didn't show his customary early dash at Musselburgh last time, but still shaped well in fourth, and you must think that run will have put the edge on him here.

Expect him to be hungrier from the gates, but the problem is that he has hardly been missed in the market at around the 7/2 mark.

Reflektor may be drawn eight but he looks the logical alternative to me, as course form figures of 2261304 underline.

The fourth came in this race last year when beaten under three lengths and he is 3lb lower here. He has been in good form in the spring and Wednesday's rain was a big boost to his chances, as you could argue one of his better career performances came on soft ground around this track.

The problem is that four of his six wins have come from making all (and he was prominent on the other two occasions), so if he doesn't get a good early pitch from eight, then the game could be up for him.

But I am happy to give him the benefit of the doubt and he rates a fair each-way bet at 9/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

I always loathe to bet in races where the emphasis on many of the field is on potential, after very few runs, especially when the proven form horse is one who looks very solid but is priced accordingly.

Circus Maximus to relish the rain

The short-priced 5/4 favourite in the Listed Dee Stakes at 14:25, is Circus Maximus, and I suspect that it could need a genuine Derby contender to lower his colours here, or at least a 1m2f performer who is up to Group 2 standard.

Circus Maximus is basically a similar horse to his stablemate Mohawk on official ratings, and their relative prices seem out of kilter, with the apparent second-string 6/1+.

The reason for that price differential is probably due in no small part due to Ryan Moore riding - though whether he chose Circus Maximus is another matter, and he certainly wasn't on the right one in last weekend's Classics - but I suspect a larger aspect is that he is proven on heavy ground, so the recent rain is less of a concern for him.

His length fourth to Magna Grecia at Doncaster last season obviously brings Group 1 form to the party here and this son of Galileo should have no issue with the extra 2f here.

But prices of around 5/4 on the exchange can easily be resisted - stating the bleedin' obvious is not the purpose of this column - especially when we don't know his state of readiness, or indeed how much the likes of once-raced Fox Champion have left in the locker.

Appleby's blossoming chance

Lincoln Park is probably the most attractive bet on the day at 8.07/1 or bigger in the 15:00.

He may not have the sexier profile of one or two of these, but he is my idea of the most likely winner on his overall profile.

He immediately blossomed after joining Mick Appleby last autumn, winning his first two starts for his new stable, including when making all in heavy ground in a good time at Haydock in October.

His next two outings were not quite as punchy but he showed the benefit of his reappearance run when fourth over a mile at Musselburgh on good ground last time.
I viewed that as an excellent run, given that he only gave best upon entering the final furlong, but the handicapper dropped him 1lb for it.

He is now just 2lb higher than when winning at Haydock, and the re-booking of the ever-excellent Silvestre De Sousa (on board the colt when he won on his debut for Appleby at Pontefract, where he also made all) is an obvious positive, as are the softening conditions and the step back in trip.

A draw in three is very acceptable, even if the two horses on his inside try to go on as well, and when they break smartly, and he looks primed for a very big run if the start goes to plan.

The waters of the Ormonde Stakes at 15:35, have been muddied by the fact that Magic Circle has also been left in Friday's Chester Cup, a race that he bolted up in last year.

But this race revolves around St Leger winner Kew Gardens, who could easily outclass these.

But the ground will be softer than is ideal for him, he carries a 7lb penalty, he has never been around this track before and his early-season target is apparently the Coronation Cup at Epsom in around three weeks' time, so he is unlikely to be cherry ripe.

In short, there are enough doubts about him to leave him, and this race, well alone at the prices on offer.

Best of luck.

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