Saturday ITV Racing Tips: In-form Fry yard can land the day's big prize
Tony Calvin started off the November meeting at Cheltenham in fine style with a 7/1 winner on Friday, and our man has a further three selections for you to consider on Saturday's televised card...
"Fry is currently operating at a 28% strike rate this season and he has undoubtedly inherited a well-handicapped horse, one who is already 2lb lower than when fifth in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup here just three starts ago."
There are a couple of Lingfield races on the ITV coverage on Saturday and, as good as they are, I think we will stick to the National Hunt cards for the time being.
That said, if you want a punt I thought Boynton would go well in the 14:45 - though he is probably short enough in the betting after that excellent Newmarket third - and Royal Birth looks overpriced at around 16/1 in the 15:15 on a track on which he is two from three. He also ran well at Chelmsford last time.
Yes, if you want a bet at Lingfield, then Royal Birth is the one to back - though the 33/1 available in once place early on Friday soon went - but no bets for me and I'll be focusing on the jumps this weekend.
Quality but small-field openers make little betting appeal
Mind you, looking at the size of the fields in the first two races at Cheltenham that are on Racing UK, my interest was tested, though the quality is certainly there, if not the depth.
The Juvenile Hurdle at 12:40 actually promises to be a very informative race for all that there are just six runners.
Gumball is the clear form pick going into the race after his emphatic Chepstow success, though you don't have to look too far for dangers, not least Apple's Jade sister Apple's Shakira. It's a race to watch, though, than unload on.
As is the three-runner Novices' Chase at 13:15.
Lough in some profit with big-race jolly
I may as well go in chronological order now I have got this far, so onto the 3m3f Handicap Chase at 13:50 we go, where last year's big improver Three Faces West is the favourite after having been nibbled at in the betting all week.
The fitness of the Gold Cup runner Minella Rocco could prove crucial here - though it would be some effort to win this off a mark of 166 - and I went round in circles with this race before deciding I was going to swerve it.
No such problems with the BetVictor Gold Cup at 14:25 where I make no apologies for putting up Kylemore Lough at 6/1 each way, five places, with the Betfair Sportsbook. And for exchange players the [7.8] win-only is equally attractive.
Now, it is not often that I tip a favourite, but Kylemore Lough looks the outstanding candidate in here for me on his first start for Harry Fry.
His previous handler Kerry Lee also did wonders with the horse (winning a Grade 1 among five successes) and is a highly capable trainer in her own right - as she showed once again with Magic Dancer at Cheltenham on Friday - but the move to Fry is no negative.
He is currently operating at a 28% strike rate this season and he has undoubtedly inherited a well-handicapped horse, one who is already 2lb lower than when fifth in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup here just three starts ago. And he could well have won that race had he not made some significant errors.
The first-time tongue-tie is interesting - I haven't heard but maybe he has had a wind op, too - and I can see him taking a lead from Foxtail Hill, and dominating this race from two out. That's my plan, anyway.
I can easily see the case for Starchitect from a stable who have finally found their stride in recent weeks, and Mystifiable interests me most of the outsiders, but I will stick with just the one play.
Weight-pull and improved fitness can play a part
It is no surprise to see Thomas Campbell heading the market in the 15:00 after his impressive win here last month and with the buzz 7lb claimer James Bowen now in the plate.
However, at the prices, I am going to back a horse who finished 12 lengths behind him last time and who is 11lb better off today. Step forward Solatentif at [15.0] or bigger.
He ran as if needing the race that day, travelling well on the outside before a mistake two out knocked him back, and thereafter his jockey didn't persevere unduly.
He ran his best race over hurdles last season when second in the 2m5f handicap hurdle on this card, and I think he can significantly outrun his odds with that run under his belt.
Feet can Stamp his authority in Handicap Hurdle
I don't tend to tip or back in bumpers so that rules out the 16:00 so that leaves the 2m5f Handicap Hurdle at 15:30 where Stamp Your Feet and Follow The Bear interest me most.
I didn't expect Stamp Your Feet to be such a big price so he gets my vote at [10.0] or bigger.
There is no big story about him other than the fact that I thought he could have given Bags Groove a race but for a mistake at the last at Aintree last month, and I think he could still be fairly handicapped off a 5lb higher mark.
Initially, that looked a harsh rise but the winner is very progressive and followed up at Kempton on Monday, so maybe it wasn't. Well, I am hoping it wasn't, anyway.
Back Kylemore Lough each-way at 6-1 with Betfair Sportsbook (five places) and/or [7.8] or bigger win-only on the exchange in 14:25 at Cheltenham
Back Solatentif at [15.0] or bigger in 15:00 at Cheltenham
Back Stamp Your Feet at [10.0] or bigger in 15:30 at Cheltenham