Channel 4 Racing Tips: O'Brien filly to set up a Wonderfully good day

Can Aidan O'Brien land the 15:15 at HQ with Wonderfully?
Can Aidan O'Brien land the 15:15 at HQ with Wonderfully?

Tony Calvin is in search of more winners from Channel 4's live TV races, and although the racing isn't too competitive on Friday our man believes he's found a Wonderfully good punt...

"The runner-up Perhaps finished second in a Group 2 next time, today's opponent and subsequent listed race winner Avenue Gabriel finished behind in third, and Albany fourth Heart Focus was behind that day, too."

Back Wonderfully to Win at 9.28/1 or bigger - 15:15 Newmarket

Back Wonderfully to Place at 2.26/5 or bigger - 15:15 Newmarket


13:40 Newmarket

Khalid Abdullah's racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe wasn't at Lingfield when Radiator blitzed her rivals earlier in the month, but he played it cool when contacted by the Racing Post afterwards.

'We have been down this route before' was the general gist of Teddy's downplayed response, mindful of the column inches generated by Kingman's maiden success for the owner at Newmarket in June and perhaps trainer Sir Michael Stoute's dislike of the premature lauding of his horses.

But you sense that connections must have been excited by what they saw at Lingfield, and had to bite their tongue somewhat.

Granted, it was only a Lingfield maiden and Ryan Moore quickly bagged the favoured rail from his wide draw. But Radiator wasn't beating trees by 15 lengths there - indeed, the runner-up Zawiyah finished fourth at 25-1 in a good sales race at Newmarket last Saturday - the time was fair, and she comes from a superb family.

Of course, there is always an element of a guessing game when horses are stepped up straight to pattern company from a maiden success. And this looks a very strong Group 3.

But sometimes you instinctively know - or think you know, anyway - when you have seen a horse of Classic potential, and I got that impression when watching her win at Lingfield.

We don't usually get involved at short prices, but it is not a set of Channel 4 races where it is easy to make a convincing case for horses at double-figure odds. And we won't be here either.

I'll be honest. I was going to suggest backing her at 3.02/1 or better, but it looks as though she is going to be much, much shorter. Around 2.01/1 in fact. And I don't think that is justified against this level of opposition at this stage of her career.

It wouldn't surprise me were she to hack up - and stable confidence is reportedly very high - but I am going to walk away from the bet. It is the best weapon in a punter's armoury sometimes.


14:40 Newmarket

The Mike De Kock camp are apparently very sweet on the chances of Soft Falling Rain in the 1m Group 2 race, and it is easy to see why. He was thought to be badly in need of the run before a good comeback second at Newbury, and looked a horse of Group 1 potential when winning at Meydan back in March.

But he looks like being around a 2.26/5 chance, so I am happy to let him win at that price.


14:10 Newmarket

De Kock also has chances of a double as he saddles Igugu in the 1m fillies listed race. But this looks an exceptionally difficult contest to call. I was toying with giving Maureen another chance after a disappointing Doncaster run, but in truth I could have made a cogent case for about four of five in here, so no bet is the call here.


15:15 Newmarket - Wonderfully

I am going to take a chance on Wonderfully in the Group 1 Shadwell Fillies Mile at 15:15, though. Rizeena and Ihtimal will rightly dominate the market, but I will be siding with Aidan O'Brien's filly at odds of 9.28/1 or bigger.

In fact, I am also going to recommend a place bet on her at 2.26/5 or bigger as well. Remember, if you place a bet with a fixed-odds firm, you only get paid on two places if there is a non-runner in this eight-runner race.

But on Betfair, you get paid on all three places, with the appropriate reduction factor or rule 4 applied. It is how all sports books should operate in my opinion when there are non-runners, as there is nothing more annoying than withdrawals changing the place terms of a bet.

Anyway, back to Wonderfully.

You can ignore her finishing position behind Rizeena in the Moyglare last time as she was very badly hampered by Kiyoshi when still bang in contention, losing all chance there and then.

I have watched the video of that race numerous times, and initially thought she would probably have been soundly beaten anyway. But Moore believes that he wasn't beaten when the interference took place, so that is good enough for me.

And it is not as if we are backing her solely on that one run, however unlucky she may or may not have been.

A first time visor saw her show improved form to take a Group 3 on fast ground at the Curragh two starts ago. And that was a decent race. The runner-up Perhaps finished second in a Group 2 next time, today's opponent and subsequent listed race winner Avenue Gabriel finished behind in third, and Albany fourth Heart Focus was behind that day, too.

The step up to 1m is expected to suit this Galileo filly ad I can see her finding in front for Moore when challenged. The visor that she wore when winning at the Curragh is again left off today - as it was in the Moyglare - so connections obviously feel her lazy tendencies are behind her as she has gained experience.


Recommended Bets

Back Wonderfully to Win at 9.28/1 or bigger - 15:15 Newmarket
Back Wonderfully to Place at 2.26/5 or bigger - 15:15 Newmarket


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