Boxing Day Racing Tips: The pick of the bets at Kempton and Wetherby

Tony Calvin
24 December 2015

Will Tony serve up some festive winners?

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Tony Calvin dons the big red suit and fluffy white beard in an attempt to land some big priced festive flutters. Merry Christmas one and all!

"Grandads Horse has an awful lot going for him for a horse quoted at a double-figure price - if that Sandown run is as promising as I've interpreted, anyway - and a patient ride over this trip is ideal for him, rather than the 3m5f of his last two starts."

To think that there was a time not so long ago when punters didn't have access to historical race videos - actually, the situation is worryingly coming full circle with the trade paper recently stopping the service - is hard to comprehend.

That said, there will be people out there who yearn for the days when you walked through the fluttering taped doorway of a betting shop into the intoxicating mix of a room full of smoke, drunks, and board men, and the sound of an Extel service always giving your horse a name check and a chance, wherever it was in the field, in the final furlong.

And I'm one, in truth, and I've always argued that there would be a demand for a retro-betting shop in central London. You could get a cash bet on to take out more than £100 in the 1980s, so that may scupper it.

The thought only popped into my head when I was studying the Rowland Meyrick at 13:45 at Wetherby and the chances of Grandads Horse.

Now, on first inspection, the bare form of his last five runs gives him no chance whatsoever, not least the fact that he beat only one horse home when a 40-length 12th at Sandown on his reappearance.

But if you go and have a look at the whole video of that comeback run in the London Marathon then I guarantee you will be interested in him off a mark of 137 now he steps back in trip to 3m. Or at least more interested than the formbook would suggest you should be.

Trainer Charlie Longsdon made no secret that the horse would need his first of the run of the season but he must have been delighted with the way he travelled for a long way there - he got in a bit close to a couple of his fences, and was shuffled back on the bend on one occasion - and he wasn't given at all a hard time once his chance had gone.

I think that was a very promising run indeed, and it was worth recalling Longsdon's comments about the horse in a Racing Post stable tour earlier in the season:

"Great old servant who´s won 12 races for us, and had his first break for two years over the summer. After the bet365 Gold Cup Aidan Coleman told me to aim him for one race and he´d probably win a decent handicap, so that's the plan. He´ll probably need a race to sharpen him up."

This could be that decent handicap. Grandads Horse has been dropped 3lb after Sandown, so he is now 2lb lower than when winning over 3m in the soft at Doncaster last December, and he also beat Tara Rose and No Planning over an extended 2m3f here in the Bobby Renton the season before.

He has an awful lot going for him for a horse quoted at a double-figure price - if that Sandown run is as promising as I've interpreted, anyway - and a patient ride over this trip is ideal for him, rather than the 3m5f of his last two starts.

Of course, there are more obvious winners. Dolatulo ran a perfectly respectable third in the Becher on his comeback and a more aggressive ride could see him hard to beat in the race he won last season.

Holywell is on a decent mark on 159, What A Good Night has been aimed at this prize ever since winning at Bangor six weeks ago, and Top Gamble has to be feared if his stamina holds out over this longer trip.

But Grandads Horse at 15.014/1 is for me the bet of Boxing Day.

Kempton's King George at 15:10 is obviously the highlight of the day, and what a race it is. In fact, you'll rarely see a stronger race in depth-terms in a Grade 1 contest, and a win for any of the top six in the betting wouldn't surprise me.

As the market suggests, Don Cossack is the likeliest winner; JLT winner Vautour is a horse of some potential; Cue Card was brilliant in the Betfair Chase; Silviniaco Conti is going for a third consecutive win in the race and excels around here; Smad Place was sensational under a more aggressive ride in the Hennessy; and Al Ferof is a proven Grade 1 horse who was seriously impressive in the Peterborough Chase.

I put up Silviniaco Conti and Smad Place ante-post at 13.012/1 and 40.039/1 respectively last month - read it here - and am happy to watch what should be a superb spectacle with no new plays.

I can fully understand why connections of our ante-post 33-1 Champion Hurdle fancy Our Guard have gone for the Christmas Hurdle at 14:35 as hot favourite Faugheen showed his first signs of vulnerability when beaten in the Morgiana, and none of the other three in this 100k race would scare you.

In fact, The New One is said not to be 100 per cent after having some "issues" since an unimpressive comeback win here in October.

However, this is clearly an afterthought for International winner Old Guard, and I can't back him, though I will obviously be delighted if he absolutely hoses in. Or indeed wins by a nose. I suspect Faugheen will revert to front-running tactics, though, and be very hard to pass.

There may actually be an angle in the race in the shape of outsider Sign Of A Victory in the "without favourite" market, for all that he wants better ground. He is in good form, and this strong traveller doesn't have much to find on official marks with all bar Faugheen, and he could come off second best here. Keep an eye on that market once it forms properly on Boxing Day.

I favour Native River over Tea For Two in the Kauto Star Novice Chase at 14:00 but not to the extent that I want to back up that opinion at around the 15-8 mark for him to win the race with my cash. No punt.

The other race on Channel 4 is another cracking and competitive contest in the shape of the novices' handicap chase at 13:25.

As you'd expect, it is full of progressive youngsters potentially well ahead of their handicap marks, and my idea of the likeliest winner is Bekkensfirth. The problem is the market agrees with me, and there isn't a lot of action in his price at around 9-2.

But he won very impressively in a good time on his chasing debut at Leicester just over a fortnight ago, and a 10lb rise may not stop him here, albeit in a much deeper race. But no bet for me, as it isn't hard to put up three or four against him.

In the non-Channel 4 races, I think Meet The Legend could make his presence felt in the 14:50 on his hurdling debut and his first start for Dan Skelton.

He showed a lot of ability in two bumpers when trained by Keith Dalgleish and if he translates that level of form to hurdles than he could give some of these loftily-rated novices a race. But he doesn't appeal enough to put up as a bet, even if odds or around 8-1 are fair enough.

Keltus is worth backing at 17.016/1 in the 15:45 even if he is yet to convince he fully stays this 2m5f trip.

But he is now down to 130, which seriously underplays his raw ability - his unlucky fourth in the 2014 Fred Winter tells you that, and he travels like a much better horse than his mark - and there was a lot of promise in his comeback run behind Simply A Legend over an extended 2m5f at Sandown.

He looked like taking a hand in the finish there when moving into contention two out - he traded 2-1 in running - and hopefully that run will have brought him on, and I'm hoping that Sam Twiston-Davies will deliver his challenge much later today.

Keltus does have a history of not finding - he has traded odds-on three times in-running and been beaten - but he looks too a big price to ignore here.

And another factor that points to an improved showing is that he had a breathing operation in the summer, and sometimes they need a run to get their confidence, and fitness, back after that.

Recommended Bets
Back Grandads Horse at 15.014/1 in the 13:45 at Wetherby
Back Keltus at 17.016/1 in the 15:45 at Kempton