Ayr Gold Cup Tips: Get on the G Force before the price is blown away

Tony has spotted some early value in the Ayr Gold Cup market
Tony has spotted some early value in the Ayr Gold Cup market

It's the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday and Tony Calvin has spotted some value in the market so is filing part one of his Saturday Racing Tips column a few hours early...

"He could be devilishly difficult to beat off this mark - only six starts ago he was fourth at Haydock when attempting to retain his 2014 Group 1 prize - and I can see him being the steamer of the race."

It goes without saying that you can easily put up 10 in a race like the Ayr Gold Cup at 15:45 and not come away with the winner but we got lucky with a 1-2 in the Portland last week - though, financially and professionally, I would have rather the 20/1 runner-up Humidor copped - and I am very sweet on the chances of G Force at odds of 26.025/1 or bigger.

For a horse at that price he has an awful lot going for him. In fact, I rate him as the one of bets of the season so far at the odds.

I am not going to bang about the draw here, mainly because I rarely do. Trying to second guess whether you want to be drawn low, as Thursday's 5f sprint would suggest, or high, is largely a futile exercise in this type of race.

The Going Stick suggested the quickest ground was down the middle, for what it is worth - though that somehow changed to the far side despite only 2mm of rain on Thursday night - but at least being drawn there gives my jockey options, so I'm happy with berth 11 for my selection.

And that is just where the positives start.

He is actually 2lb wrong here off 102 compared to his Irish mark of 100 but I am not overly-concerned by that.

This is a horse who was rated 16lb higher after winning the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup two years ago when trained by David O'Meara. So he has the back-form to trot up here.

Obviously, he has regressed somewhat since and the last time we saw him in this country he was finishing stone last in the Stewards' Cup, off a mark of 108. That was just two starts ago.

But he has apparently had a wind op since that disappointing run and he shaped with ominous promise on his first start since when third at Navan at the start of this month - the tongue tie that he had been wearing was ditched there, and is today, too - and that should have tuned him up nicely for this.

That Navan form has plenty of substance, too.

The winner, The Happy Prince, was beaten only a short head by Breton Rock in a Group 2 at Doncaster on Saturday and the runner-up, In Salutem, finished a good fifth in a Group 2 at the Curragh on Saturday, a race in which the Navan sixth, Ardhoomey, actually won the race.

A simple reproduction of that form may be good enough.

He also has two big-field wins to his name, handles cut and good ground alike, and hails from a stable with a superb 31% strike rate at this track (14 from 45) following Rahyah's win here on Thursday.

And it could be that his new trainer - this is only his fifth start for Adrian Keatley - has now found the key to him with the wind op.

If he has, then he could be devilishly difficult to beat off this mark - only six starts ago he was fourth at Haydock when attempting to retain his 2014 Group 1 prize - and I can see him being the steamer of the race.

That's why I am going up early with this tip, in case there is a price collapse throughout the day, The 33/1 in one place yesterday has already disappeared, but anything around 25.024/1 on the Exchange is worth grabbing.

The rest of my Saturday selections to follow later.

Recommended Bet
Back G Force at 25.024/1 or bigger in Ayr Gold Cup at 15:45

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