Saturday Racing Tips: Mr Lupton looks like one to side with at Newbury

Mr Lupton runs at Newbury on Saturday afternoon
Mr Lupton runs at Newbury on Saturday afternoon

Tony Calvin returns with a look at Saturday's racing from Market Rasen and Newbury...


Recommended Bets

Back Hurricane Hollow at 9.08/1 in the 14:55 at Market Rasen

Back Mr Lupton at 30.029/1 in the 15:45 at Newbury

The phrase "bringing a gun to a knife fight" sprang to mind when seeing that Messrs' Richard Fahey and Hannon are responsible for 14 of the 25 runners in Newbury's £250,000 Weatherbys Super Sprint at 15:45.

Okay, they may not have it all their own way with the likes of Soapy Aitken and Excessable capable of mixing it with their two gangs - indeed, that pair will likely head the market come off-time - but I reckon Fahey could have the answer to the valuable prize in the shape of what I believe could be his main marksman, Mr Lupton.

He rates a fair bet at 30.029/1 or bigger. That looks far too big to me.

His form is some way detached from the market leaders but I like the way that this horse travels in his races, and I anticipate that he will take a big leap forward in what is sure to be a strongly-run 5f.

On his latest start, he looked to be travelling like the winner for a long way in a decent 6f York nursery, run in a good time, only to be worried out of it close home.

But that run indicated to me that a step back down to 5f will suit, and I can see him pouncing late here. It's clearly a ridiculously competitive race but he shapes as if there is plenty more to come from him. There needs to be, though.


*****


The rest of the Newbury card on C4 is very tricky, though I am sure that plenty will be focusing on Sealife in the 14:00.

She looked very promising when winning a Windsor maiden on her debut last week and the stable's record with once-raced maiden winners pitched straight into handicaps is very impressive. In the last three years, six of the 12 have won and the worst placing of the other sextet was fourth.

So take heed.

The problem as ever is the price - the layers are never keen to be overly-generous with a William Haggas horse of this profile - so I can't play.


*****


The 1m2f listed race at 14:35 is very interesting, but nothing jumps out at me at the prices - Consort looks on the skinny side at around the even money mark - and the same is pretty much true of the six-runner Hackwood Stakes at 15:10.

I was tempted by Secret Art in the 13:40 at Newmarket, as I think he is still weighted to win races off a 4lb higher mark for his Windsor success last time. And he has course form, too. But, once again, there doesn't seem to any juice in the prices in such a competitive 10-runner race.

And the 14:15, isn't any more bet-inducing. Sorry.


*****


I won't have a fresh play at the Curragh - here are my weekend ante-post selections, and the reasoning - but I am going to have another nibble at Market Rasen.

Baby Mix and Lost Legend would be my two against the field in the Plate at 15:30, but I am going to throw some more funds at the Summer Hurdle at 14:55, and Hurricane Hollow at 9.08/1 is the recipient.

This one was a rarity in that he disappointed on his debut for the yard at Kempton in December but he proved far more tractable after a break when winning easily at Cheltenham in April, and this has been the plan ever since.

He has gone up 9lb for that win but the form has worked out pretty well and, that Kempton defeat aside - he raced a bit too freely there and paid for it in the straight - he boasts a very progressive profile and Dan Skelton has an excellent chance of notching another big-race win. His strike rate in the high 30s continues to astound.

Best of luck.


Recommended Bets

Back Hurricane Hollow at 9.08/1 in the 14:55 at Market Rasen
Back Mr Lupton at 30.029/1 in the 15:45 at Newbury


Already Recommended

Back Kie at 34.033/1 in the Summer Hurdle
Back Jack Naylor at 13.012/1 in the Irish Oaks


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