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Neil Munro's In-Running Week

Roger Varian trains Eton Forever

Eton Forever tends to travel just off the pace and gets delivered late on so when he doesn't win he trades short in the run. And good to firm ground tends to be when he doesn't win...

Neil Munro is turning to in-running trading on a full-time basis, but he still shares his thoughts and recommendations with you... 

I am about eight weeks from doing the most exciting and yet the scariest thing I have ever done in my life. And bearing in mind that I worked in Soho for ten years of my professional life, and I have been on holiday to Las Vegas seven times with various wild mates in my life, that is saying something. I am leaving the comfort of a full time job (some people in Betfair might question that) and attempt to get my family life balance back while trying to make the In-Running trading pay as a profession.

I took a few days off last week to spend with the better half, and we talked through how we are going to make it work for the whole family. We went out for a boozy lunch one day and Mrs In Running looked me deeply in the eyes and said she wanted to understand exactly what I was going to be doing, so she could support me and show an interest. 

As I set out on my explanation of how it was going to work, with love of this beautiful and caring woman opposite me, I explained how horses have different running styles, different quirks and the Betfair market moved in reaction to what was happening in the race. Five minutes became ten and then twenty, and then I looked up at her and I saw...her eyes glazed over! 'Oh well', she said, 'You know what you are doing and you seem passionate about it so go for it'.  

I assure you, if the team at Timeform will allow me, I will tell you about all the ups and downs while trying to help to continue to find horses for you to trade on at home. I am always open to any questions, reaction and debate around trading so please don't hesitate to get in touch through Twitter (@neilmunr).

Horses on the Database:

Forever Waining - Peter Bowen does so well with his collection of summer horses and when the seven-year-old gelding returned from a long period of absence at Uttoxeter the other day there appeared to be a great deal of interest in the market for him. This was only Forever Waining's eighth career start - his fourth over hurdles - and yet you just had to look at his form figures to be wary, with more seconds than myself at a Las Vegas buffet! Even more intriguing was his in-running CV which showed five odds-on turnovers in seven starts. So I got involved, backing him pre-race and then turning around my position in the race to have the field winning for me. He traded 1.81 having gone off a BSP of 7.20 and he is a very interesting horse to play on as he is yet to taste victory.

Back Forever Waining at BSP and then lay out your stake at ½ the matched price followed by all your other potential winnings at odds-on to have the field winning for you. Alternatively, just lay him at odds-on in the run.

Leading Light - Another fantastic week for the Coolmore operation this week with the Ruler Of The World winning the Derby but I was more intrigued by a performance at the Curragh the previous weekend. Leading Light is a hard name to live with when you are based in their stables but he is starting to show the talent that justified a massive gamble on his second start and culminated in a Group 3 win. So what next? Well Royal Ascot could be the route but wherever Leading Light goes keep in mind that he finds plenty for pressure and because of this has traded at decent prices in the run. His in-running CV shows the following prices matched:- 12.0 (2.15 BSP); 24.0 (4.1) and 5.1 (1.78).

Back Leading Light in the run at 2x and 4x his BSP if you fancy him.

Smoothtalkinrascal - I personally think that the race of the Epsom Derby meeting was the Dash that took place forty-five minutes before the Derby. There are a number of horse I would take out of the race, outside of the winner Duke of Firenze who traded 1000 in the run, including Robert Cowell's new Italian recruit Jiroft who looked all speed from a poor draw and Fair Value who did best of those on the pace staying on for fourth, but the one that I really like from an in-running point of view is Smoothtalkinrascal.

David O'Meara has trained the three year old this season after being with Brian Meehan for his two year old career and he seems to have a decent sprinter on his hands. He can get outpaced in his races but comes late, and, as seen at Epsom, is often delivered right on the line. If he had won he would definitely have traded at 1000 in the run but in the end he went down by ¼ of a length and yet didn't trade less than his starting price. This gives an indication of just how quickly he was finishing. Because of his running style he has traded at double his starting price in the run for his two victories this season but also has plenty of low trades.

Something for the weekend

The Timeform Jury Stakes over seven furlongs at Haydock looks an interesting Group 3, and I am sure the Jury are, as I write, debating in a room in Halifax who they think the winner will be. I imagine that the anoraks are hung neatly on the coat rack, the pencils have been sharpened, and the Barley Lemon squash has been poured out. I look forward to hearing what they put up as a tip but as always I will look at the race from an in-running angle.

Most likely pace is to come from Libranno who I am sure can bounce back from a slightly disappointing run at Newbury in the Lockinge. At the end of the day that was aiming too high and this is much more obtainable. He could be challenged for the pace by Red Jazz and Set The Trend but I think Libranno could get into a rhythm and trade considerably shorter in the run.

Eton Forever would be the main trade though, especially if the ground comes up good to firm. He has four turf victories to his name but all of them have come on good ground or softer. He tends to travel just off the pace and gets delivered late on so when he doesn't win he trades short in the run. And good to firm ground tends to be when he doesn't win. According to Timeform going descriptions, he has lost six times on good to firm ground trading at 2.10, 1.34, 1.52, 2.12, 1.44, 1.58. You know what you have to do.

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05 June 2013

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