In-Running Week: Hopeful not Looking so keen to get his head in front

Neil Munro
17 October 2012

Which jumpers make Nei'ls In-Running database this week

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Chepstow last Saturday is for some punters the start of the National Hunt season proper but with Towcester and Exeter on a couple of days before that meet, Neil Munro noticed a few interesting horses to add to the In-Running database...

"Even if hurdles help him concentrate I still feel he could be one that struggles to win, although it is early days."

Kilvergan Boy

Nigel Twiston-Davies is renowned for his horses running well at this time of year but it is worth playing on Kilvergan Boy whenever he runs, although under the right conditions obviously. The eight-year-old likes to front run, but is adaptable in tactics, and however he runs he does at times fail to find at the business end of a race. I have only looked at his record over fences and under that code he has hit half his Betfair Starting Price (BSP) in 17 of his 28 runs. He has gone on to win three of those but has also hit odds-on six times and been beaten. He looks a natural for back-to-lay tactics, but his most consistent record comes between three miles and three miles two furlongs.

Back Kilvergan Boy pre-race at BSP. If he is running over 3m-3m2f then just lay out your stake at ½ the BSP with a further odds-on offer to put a little winnings on the field. If over any other distance then lay out double your stake at ½ the BSP.

Looking Hopeful

In his four bumper runs so far he has been looking hopeful for a win in three of them (the last three since moving to Nicky Henderson) but has yet to taste success which will be a disappointment to connections, But Looking Hopeful obviously has talent and he does travel supremely well at times. His most recent outing will be marked down as unlucky as Barry Geraghty seemed to try and find the most difficult route. Now in all the write-ups it has been suggested that he would have won but having watched his previous two performances I think he is a little bit of a character who has failed to find and almost looked for trouble. Even if hurdles help him concentrate I still feel he could be one that struggles to win, although it is early days.

For the next three starts back Looking Helpful pre-race at BSP and then lay out double your stake at around evens with further low odds-on offers to lay to have the field winning plenty.

Annalune

I may be accused of being very unkind but Anna is a bit of a lune in what we have seen so far. David Evans three-year-old filly has been sent hurdling very early in her career and I wonder if connections just felt that she needed something to distract her because she does seem to have lots going through her head. Last time out they kept the visor off of her but Annalune still made one of her many hurdling errors, and Aidan Coleman was almost sent flying, but somehow he managed to stay on and then started pushing her along. At this point she traded at the ceiling price of 1000.0 in the run but she stayed on under very heavy conditions to win the race. Now it will be marked up that she is worth more than the winning margin but I would beware as she has shown plenty of quirkiness (unseated rider prior to a flat race; emptied out quickly; done best work late on when all over; jumped left; jumped slowly) during her career so far.

If Annalune is a layable price prior to racing I would lay prior to the race and then put up an offer to back her at least double the BSP. If you fancy her just back her in the run and be sure to put a couple of quid up at a big price as well.