Today's Horse Racing Tips: Just back Hubert for Plate success at Newcastle

Newcastle Northumberland Plate
Alan is backing a runner at a big price in the feature Betfair Northumberland Plate
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Alan was unlucky yesterday with Wedding Date, who finished second and was beaten at [1.13] in the run. Today he has a bet at a decent price in the Northumberland Plate...

"He landed the Edinburgh Cup from 86 with a strong staying performance, but I really enjoyed his pick up effort off a strong pace over 2m at Sandown."

Back Just Hubert Win and Place @ BSP in the 15:35 at Newcastle

Expect a big run from Muir's Hubert

15:35 Newcastle - Back Just Hubert Win and Place @ BSP

Seconds hit again yesterday, although I can't really grumble with Thaqaffa getting slammed by half the track. The [1.13] in-running of Wedding Date however was a tough one.

I usually end up with the Betfair Northumberland Plate when on duty, which is a good thing as it's a proper Saturday race and an Extra Place Special race too on the Sportsbook. I like a couple in Smart Champion and Just Hubert, and preference is for the latter who really impressed me last season.

He improved for the step up to 2m in what was a very productive 2019 campaign. He landed the Edinburgh Cup from 86 with a strong staying performance, but I really enjoyed his pick up effort off a strong pace over 2m at Sandown. The finish and the tempo of the race really suited him, so I envisage Newcastle could play to his strengths.

Three-time handicap winner as 3-y-o, latest at Musselburgh in September, but has gone off the boil and returned with last of 6 at Haydock. Makes tapeta debut with questions to answer now.

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Date Course/Class Pos Type Dist. Gng. HDGR WGT Jockey BSP
08/06/20 Haydock Park 6/6 Flat 2m 45y Good 8st 9lbs Graham Lee 4.56
02/11/19 Chelmsford City 6/9 Flat 1m 6f Slow 8st 7lbs Nicola Currie 16.72
04/10/19 Ascot 5/8 Flat 1m 6f 34y Heavy 9st 1lbs Tom Marquand 6.2
14/09/19 Musselburgh 1/10 Flat 1m 7f 217y Gd/frm 9st 5lbs Graham Lee 4.4
24/08/19 York 5/12 Flat 1m 5f 188y Firm 8st 11lbs P. J. McDonald 32
25/07/19 Sandown Park 1/6 Flat 1m 6f Gd/frm 8st 9lbs Tom Marquand 13.5
08/07/19 Ripon 1/5 Flat 1m 4f 10y Gd/frm 9st 7lbs Daniel Tudhope 2.38
04/07/19 Newbury 3/5 Flat 1m 4f Gd/frm 8st 11lbs Kerrin McEvoy 23.52
09/05/19 Chester 4/10 Flat 1m 4f 63y Heavy 8st 12lbs Ben Curtis 22.49
19/04/19 Bath 6/7 Flat 1m 3f 137y Gd/frm 8st 10lbs Martin Dwyer 39.96
24/10/18 Newmarket (Rowley) 9/9 Flat 1m 2f Good 9st 1lbs Martin Dwyer 14.66
08/10/18 Pontefract 1/6 Flat 1m 2f 5y Soft 9st 2lbs Daniel Tudhope 4.78
24/09/18 Kempton Park 2/9 Flat 1m 1f 219y Std 9st 2lbs Tom Marquand 44.07
26/08/18 Goodwood 5/8 Flat 1m Soft 9st 4lbs Martin Dwyer 32.52

Indeed, from last season, he boasts an excellent piece of form when finishing fifth in the Melrose.

He'll be a lot fitter following a comeback run at Haydock. He was too keen in that from a poor position, although it was a pretty strong race.

With a good draw and a double figure price at 14/1 on the Sportsbook initially and [24.0] on the Exchange, he should also be considered in the Place market. He has been mentioned as a possible for the Melbourne Cup by his trainer William Muir.

Dream of a winner with Knight's Author

16:10 Newcastle - Back Author's Dream @ [3.55]

Trainer William Knight must be loving Newmarket since his switch to headquarters for the season, as he is operating at a near 30% strike-rate with his runners at the moment - and that included a Royal Ascot winner.

He sends one for the Vase Consolation, and in truth, this shouldn't take an awful lot of winning.

Five wins from 19 Flat runs. Won 11-runner handicap at Sandown (14f, good, 33/1) 14 days ago. 5 lb rise fair enough but this is a stronger race, so more will be needed.

Scroll for more info
Date Course/Class Pos Type Dist. Gng. HDGR WGT Jockey BSP
13/06/20 Sandown Park 1/11 Flat 1m 6f Good V 9st 3lbs Callum Shepherd 35.75
29/02/20 Lingfield Park 4/8 Flat 1m 7f 169y Std V 10st 0lbs Elisha Whittington 10.19
15/01/20 Wolverhampton 8/10 Flat 2m 120y Slow V 9st 12lbs Pierre-Louis Jamin 15
07/08/19 Kempton Park 4/7 Flat 1m 7f 218y Slow V 10st 0lbs Jason Watson 140
28/05/18 Chelmsford City 7/10 Flat 2m Std V 9st 10lbs Tom Queally 12.36
11/05/18 Ascot 9/11 Flat 1m 7f 209y Firm V 9st 10lbs Joshua Bryan 30.75
07/04/18 Kempton Park 8/11 Flat 1m 7f 218y Std V 8st 11lbs Luke Morris 6.8
03/03/18 Lingfield Park 1/4 Flat 1m 7f 169y Std V 9st 9lbs Jason Watson 2.71
03/02/18 Lingfield Park 1/8 Flat 1m 7f 169y Std V 9st 12lbs Martin Harley 3.2
10/01/18 Lingfield Park 1/8 Flat 1m 7f 169y Std/fast V 9st 10lbs Martin Harley 3.96
09/12/17 Wolverhampton 1/13 Flat 2m 120y Std/slow V 9st 6lbs Martin Harley 5.64
07/11/17 Kempton Park 3/14 Flat 1m 7f 218y Std V 9st 6lbs Luke Morris 17.01
14/06/17 Kempton Park 4/12 Flat 1m 7f 218y Slow 9st 4lbs Jim Crowley 2.93
04/05/17 Lingfield Park 9/13 Flat 1m 7f 169y Std 9st 4lbs Jim Crowley 2.38
25/03/17 Wolverhampton 2/9 Flat 2m 119y Std 9st 4lbs Callum Shepherd 3.22
28/05/16 Salisbury 7/13 Flat 1m 4f Good 8st 13lbs Jim Crowley 17.59
29/04/16 Chepstow 10/13 Flat 1m 2f 36y Good 8st 10lbs Jim Crowley 33.7
17/11/15 Lingfield Park 7/9 Flat 1m 1y Std/fast 9st 5lbs Tom Queally 26.93
04/11/15 Nottingham 7/11 Flat 1m 75y Soft 9st 5lbs Tom Queally 21

Author's Dream is the one, and whilst he is towards the head of the market at [3.55], he looks well-in on his old form and is simply a better horse on the all-weather.

Last time he won at Sandown over 1m6f with a strong staying performance from a wide move, and whilst he has gone up 5lb, his mark of 81 isn't prohibitive.

A return to a testing 2m will suit as he is from a family of strong stayers.


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Alan Dudman's P&L

2020 Overall: +0.83

This week:
Staked: 5.5
Returned: 7.40

2019: +3.25
2018: +44.91
2017: +5.49
2016: +16.38

*All bets to a 0.5pt stake unless stated otherwise

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