Alan was unlucky yesterday with Wedding Date, who finished second and was beaten at [1.13] in the run. Today he has a bet at a decent price in the Northumberland Plate...
"He landed the Edinburgh Cup from 86 with a strong staying performance, but I really enjoyed his pick up effort off a strong pace over 2m at Sandown."
Expect a big run from Muir's Hubert
15:35 Newcastle - Back Just Hubert Win and Place @ BSP
Seconds hit again yesterday, although I can't really grumble with Thaqaffa getting slammed by half the track. The [1.13] in-running of Wedding Date however was a tough one.
I usually end up with the Betfair Northumberland Plate when on duty, which is a good thing as it's a proper Saturday race and an Extra Place Special race too on the Sportsbook. I like a couple in Smart Champion and Just Hubert, and preference is for the latter who really impressed me last season.
He improved for the step up to 2m in what was a very productive 2019 campaign. He landed the Edinburgh Cup from 86 with a strong staying performance, but I really enjoyed his pick up effort off a strong pace over 2m at Sandown. The finish and the tempo of the race really suited him, so I envisage Newcastle could play to his strengths.
Three-time handicap winner as 3-y-o, latest at Musselburgh in September, but has gone off the boil and returned with last of 6 at Haydock. Makes tapeta debut with questions to answer now.
|08/06/20||Haydock Park||6/6||Flat||2m 45y||Good||8st 9lbs||Graham Lee||4.56|
|02/11/19||Chelmsford City||6/9||Flat||1m 6f||Slow||8st 7lbs||Nicola Currie||16.72|
|04/10/19||Ascot||5/8||Flat||1m 6f 34y||Heavy||9st 1lbs||Tom Marquand||6.2|
|14/09/19||Musselburgh||1/10||Flat||1m 7f 217y||Gd/frm||9st 5lbs||Graham Lee||4.4|
|24/08/19||York||5/12||Flat||1m 5f 188y||Firm||8st 11lbs||P. J. McDonald||32|
|25/07/19||Sandown Park||1/6||Flat||1m 6f||Gd/frm||8st 9lbs||Tom Marquand||13.5|
|08/07/19||Ripon||1/5||Flat||1m 4f 10y||Gd/frm||9st 7lbs||Daniel Tudhope||2.38|
|04/07/19||Newbury||3/5||Flat||1m 4f||Gd/frm||8st 11lbs||Kerrin McEvoy||23.52|
|09/05/19||Chester||4/10||Flat||1m 4f 63y||Heavy||8st 12lbs||Ben Curtis||22.49|
|19/04/19||Bath||6/7||Flat||1m 3f 137y||Gd/frm||8st 10lbs||Martin Dwyer||39.96|
|24/10/18||Newmarket (Rowley)||9/9||Flat||1m 2f||Good||9st 1lbs||Martin Dwyer||14.66|
|08/10/18||Pontefract||1/6||Flat||1m 2f 5y||Soft||9st 2lbs||Daniel Tudhope||4.78|
|24/09/18||Kempton Park||2/9||Flat||1m 1f 219y||Std||9st 2lbs||Tom Marquand||44.07|
|26/08/18||Goodwood||5/8||Flat||1m||Soft||9st 4lbs||Martin Dwyer||32.52|
Indeed, from last season, he boasts an excellent piece of form when finishing fifth in the Melrose.
He'll be a lot fitter following a comeback run at Haydock. He was too keen in that from a poor position, although it was a pretty strong race.
With a good draw and a double figure price at 14/1 on the Sportsbook initially and [24.0] on the Exchange, he should also be considered in the Place market. He has been mentioned as a possible for the Melbourne Cup by his trainer William Muir.
Dream of a winner with Knight's Author
16:10 Newcastle - Back Author's Dream @ [3.55]
Trainer William Knight must be loving Newmarket since his switch to headquarters for the season, as he is operating at a near 30% strike-rate with his runners at the moment - and that included a Royal Ascot winner.
He sends one for the Vase Consolation, and in truth, this shouldn't take an awful lot of winning.
Five wins from 19 Flat runs. Won 11-runner handicap at Sandown (14f, good, 33/1) 14 days ago. 5 lb rise fair enough but this is a stronger race, so more will be needed.
|13/06/20||Sandown Park||1/11||Flat||1m 6f||Good||V||9st 3lbs||Callum Shepherd||35.75|
|29/02/20||Lingfield Park||4/8||Flat||1m 7f 169y||Std||V||10st 0lbs||Elisha Whittington||10.19|
|15/01/20||Wolverhampton||8/10||Flat||2m 120y||Slow||V||9st 12lbs||Pierre-Louis Jamin||15|
|07/08/19||Kempton Park||4/7||Flat||1m 7f 218y||Slow||V||10st 0lbs||Jason Watson||140|
|28/05/18||Chelmsford City||7/10||Flat||2m||Std||V||9st 10lbs||Tom Queally||12.36|
|11/05/18||Ascot||9/11||Flat||1m 7f 209y||Firm||V||9st 10lbs||Joshua Bryan||30.75|
|07/04/18||Kempton Park||8/11||Flat||1m 7f 218y||Std||V||8st 11lbs||Luke Morris||6.8|
|03/03/18||Lingfield Park||1/4||Flat||1m 7f 169y||Std||V||9st 9lbs||Jason Watson||2.71|
|03/02/18||Lingfield Park||1/8||Flat||1m 7f 169y||Std||V||9st 12lbs||Martin Harley||3.2|
|10/01/18||Lingfield Park||1/8||Flat||1m 7f 169y||Std/fast||V||9st 10lbs||Martin Harley||3.96|
|09/12/17||Wolverhampton||1/13||Flat||2m 120y||Std/slow||V||9st 6lbs||Martin Harley||5.64|
|07/11/17||Kempton Park||3/14||Flat||1m 7f 218y||Std||V||9st 6lbs||Luke Morris||17.01|
|14/06/17||Kempton Park||4/12||Flat||1m 7f 218y||Slow||9st 4lbs||Jim Crowley||2.93|
|04/05/17||Lingfield Park||9/13||Flat||1m 7f 169y||Std||9st 4lbs||Jim Crowley||2.38|
|25/03/17||Wolverhampton||2/9||Flat||2m 119y||Std||9st 4lbs||Callum Shepherd||3.22|
|28/05/16||Salisbury||7/13||Flat||1m 4f||Good||8st 13lbs||Jim Crowley||17.59|
|29/04/16||Chepstow||10/13||Flat||1m 2f 36y||Good||8st 10lbs||Jim Crowley||33.7|
|17/11/15||Lingfield Park||7/9||Flat||1m 1y||Std/fast||9st 5lbs||Tom Queally||26.93|
|04/11/15||Nottingham||7/11||Flat||1m 75y||Soft||9st 5lbs||Tom Queally||21|
Author's Dream is the one, and whilst he is towards the head of the market at [3.55], he looks well-in on his old form and is simply a better horse on the all-weather.
Last time he won at Sandown over 1m6f with a strong staying performance from a wide move, and whilst he has gone up 5lb, his mark of 81 isn't prohibitive.
A return to a testing 2m will suit as he is from a family of strong stayers.
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Alan Dudman's P&L
2020 Overall: +0.83
*All bets to a 0.5pt stake unless stated otherwise
Back Just Hubert Win and Place @ BSP in the 15:35 at Newcastle
Back Author's Dream @ [3.55] in the 16:10 at Newcastle