Saturday Racing Tips: Nakeeta can make course form count in the Ebor

Tony Calvin thinks Nakeeta has excellent claims in the Ebor
Tony Calvin thinks Nakeeta has excellent claims in the Ebor

It's the final day of York's Ebor meeting and Tony Calvin returns with three fancies for the action on the Knavesmire as well as a pair to back at Goodwood...

"his mark of 103 is more than justified, he has been given a 10-week break after three quick runs in early summer, his stable is in good nick, and hopefully 5lb claimer Callum Rodriguez will find life easy from what looks a decent draw in 15"

Back Nakeeta at 16.015/1 or bigger in 15:35 at York

Rodriguez can claim Ebor glory aboard Nakeeta


Let's keep this intro simple for once. Nakeeta looks very solid at 16.015/1 or bigger in the Ebor at 15:35.

Let's start with his course form figures of 422, which includes a second to Dai Harraild here in May in a 1m6f Listed race, which was just about a career-best.

Or his form in big-field handicaps. He split Golden Spear and Magic Circle in the November Handicap at Leopardstown last autumn and he has also won an Old Borough Cup at this trip, as well as having a short-head second in a Chester Cup on his CV.

Yes, others may have more scope for improvement and a more progressive profile but his mark of 103 is more than justified, he has been given a 10-week break after three quick runs in early summer, his stable is in good nick, and hopefully 5lb claimer Callum Rodriguez will find life easy from what looks a decent draw in 15.

I am going to put up Dubka as a saver at 12.5 or better, but I am worried about the ground. The more it dries up, the less you should have on her.

She does have winning form on a fast surface but she is clearly better when encountering some cut, as she showed when chasing home Bateel at Haydock and when just chinned on the line in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood last time.

She looks well-handicapped on that Goodwood run, her outside draw in 19 looks fine, and let's hope she can go one better than her dam who finished second in this race in 2010.

Magic Circle looks the best of the rest at the prices, but just the , http://btfr.co/133550746two plays for me, obviously.


Baydar should go well following drop in weights


I simply can't let Baydar go unbacked in the 1m2f handicap at 16:40. Look to support him at 16.015/1 or bigger.

I had a proper sulk-up when he got no kind of run up the rail at Goodwood last time, where I thought he could have been placed with a clear passage. His jockey, Josephine Gordon, didn't do anything to dissuade me from that thought when I spoke to her afterwards.

The bonus is that he has been dropped 1lb since, so he is now only 1lb higher than when winning a really strong 1m2f Newbury handicap last September.

He is weighted to go close and the first-time cheekpieces could help him travel into his races better - though Hugo Palmer is only 1 from 12 with that headgear since 2016 - so I hope he is allowed to take his chance on the drying ground. His trainer thinks he is better with a bit of dig, though he has won on good to firm.


Ertiyad and Ultimate Avenue make plenty of appeal at Goodwood


There are also three races on the box at Goodwood and, rarely for me, I am going to take a financial interest in a 2yo race, as I think the market in the Prestige Stakes at 14:10, has been heavily-swayed by the "sexy" contenders. Too much so.

You don't get many bigger "wow" moments in racing than Billesdon Brook taking off in the final furlong to win a nursery off 87 over course and distance last time - quite literally from a betting point of view as she traded at 1000 in the run - and, of course, everyone loves an unbeaten juvenile, and we have four of them in here.

So I am more than happy to look outside of that quintet and my focus is on Ertiyad and Whitefountainfairy, with the former getting the nod at 11.010/1 or better. At the time of writing she is also 10/1 with Betfair Sportsbook and that is a fair each-way angle if that price is still there.

She went off a 14/1 chance in the Albany on the back of a decent soft-ground Haydock win but rather blew out at Royal Ascot. But I thought she ran a race full of promise when fourth in the Sweet Solera last time, sticking on really well close home after not having a lot of racing room in the final furlong or so.

There is a suspicion the drying ground may not be ideal for her, though she did run well on good to firm on her debut, but I thought she shaped really well at Newmarket - and that form gives her every chance as it stands here - with the prospect of a lot more to come.

I suspect that Lightning Spear could follow up last year's win in the Celebration Mile in some style at 15:20, but odds of around 11/10 rarely do it for me in horse racing. I certainly wouldn't be laying him, that's for sure.

Everyone has been waiting for Ultimate Avenue to come out again after his eye-catching third at Newmarket last month - and waiting, and waiting, as he has been pulled out a couple of times after the ground turned against him.

Connections clearly think he needs it good or better, as I believe he had a wind op after a disappointing run first time out this season - I could be wrong, though - and we saw the benefit of that in a first-time tongue tie at Newmarket. Well, it looks like they thought he had a problem with his wind, either way, and it looks like it has been solved.

He probably would have won well with a clear run there, and a 3lb rise may not stop him, particularly as the three horses immediately behind him have all won since.

He cost 340,000 euros as a yearling, was highly-thought of at two, and the step up to 7f won't be any issue at all for him as he won over the trip last season. Normal rules apply when it comes to Goodwood, though; IF he gets a clear run from stall five, then I think he could take some stopping and odds of 7.513/2 or bigger look very fair in the 14:45.


Recommended Bets

Back Ertiyad at 11.010/1 or bigger in 14:10 at Goodwood
Back Ultimate Avenue at 7.513/2 or bigger in 14:45 at Goodwood
Back Nakeeta at 16.015/1 or bigger in 15:35 at York
Back Dubka at 12.5 or bigger in 15:35 at York
Back Baydar at 16.015/1 or bigger in 16:40 at York

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