Timeform UK SmartPlays: Friday 28 June

Roger Varian
There is all-weather racing from Newcastle on Friday

Timeform pick out their best back, lay and smart stat bets on Friday...

"...the handicapper may have taken a chance with his opening mark..."

Timeform on Elamirr

Back
Elamirr - 17:30 Newcastle

Elamirr is hard to oppose on his handicap debut. Roger Varian's colt progressed with each start on the all-weather last season, winning a seven-furlong minor event at Lingfield on his final start in December. There should be more to come from him this year and the handicapper may have taken a chance with his opening mark. Antico Lady will be the main danger after a creditable second at Newmarket on the back of two wins, including one on tapeta, while Testa Rossa goes well over C&D and may make the frame.

Lay
Aktau - 19:20 Newmarket

Aktau will likely be well found in the market having shaped well in three starts to date and he looks potentially well treated now handicapping for leading connections. But this looks a decent handicap for the grade and it could pay to take him on. The Alan King-trained Green Etoile is an interesting runner back on the Flat, having made a winning debut over hurdles at Hexham this month, and should appreciate this trip having won his last start on the Flat too over a mile and a half.

Smart Stat
The Very Moon - 16:25 Doncaster

21% - Sir Michael Stoute's strike rate in mid season

The Very Moon shaped with plenty of promise when finishing second on debut at Salisbury last month, making good headway over three furlongs out to challenge in the final furlong, only beaten by what looked a useful type. There should be plenty of improvement in her now, and this well-related filly should be suited by this galloping track. Sir Michael Stoute's strike rate at this time of year bodes well, too.

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