Follow The Money: Three bets from Saturday at York

We oppose Aidan O'Brien's Outspoken at York today
We oppose Aidan O'Brien's Outspoken at York today

Today's movers all come from the Ebor meeting at York.

"William Haggas has had a successful meeting so far with four wins from eight runners, with Ornate giving him a great chance to add to that figure."

Back Ornate @ 1.981/1 in the 16:20 at York

Starting with the Group 3 1m1f Strensall Stakes at 14:00, where Top Notch Tonto has been backed in to 6.86/1 from a high of 8.37. Brian Ellison's five-year-old has notched up six wins from 32 starts and won over £400k in prize money for connections. This gelding by Thousand Words most recent win was at York beating Gabrial over 1m in June in a Listed race, and since then he ran with promise over 1m2½f at York again finishing a close second in a Group 2 race. Both these runs saw the application of cheek pieces, which are on again today, and with most recent winning jockey Silvestre De Sousa getting the leg up he looks worth a bet at 6.86/1 and down in grade.

We find our negative of the day in the 14:35 1m6f Melrose Stakes, where Outspoken has drifted out to 12.5 in the win from 10.519/2 and we recommend a lay in the place market at 3.259/4. Aiden O'Brien's colt by Galileo has had three races so far and won two of those, most recently in a conditions event at Dundalk over 1m½f in July. However, this was a three runner race and Outspoken went off at 8/15 so today's handicap debut sees a completely different situation for the three-year-old. The drift in the market suggests a place lay is the way to go at 3.259/4.

Ending with the 16:20 Listed Julia Graves Roses Stakes, where Ornate has received noticeable support in to 1.981/1 from a high of 2.588/5. This two-year-old won his maiden on his second attempt in taking style at Ripon last month, winning by five lengths and beating three subsequent winners. The Bahamian Bounty-colt has an entry in the Middle Park Stakes and his trainer William Haggas has had a successful meeting so far with four wins from eight runners, with Ornate giving him a great chance to add to that figure.


Recommended Bets
Back Top Notch Tonto @ 6.86/1 in the 14:00 at York
Lay Outspoken @ 3.259/4 in the 14:35 place market at York
Back Ornate @ 1.981/1 in the 16:20 at York

Follow The Money 2015 P/L

Staked: 623 pts
Returned: 628.05 pts
P/L: + 4.05 pts
Based on prices at time of publication, calculated before commission. Correct to end of July.

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