Today's Follow The Money is a Hennessy Meeting special, with a lay, a win bet and an each-way selection from day one at Newbury...
We begin with our lay in the 12:30 2m Novice Hurdle, where Charmix from the Harry Fry stable has drifted from 4.57/2 to 6.611/2. Despite winning on soft ground at Wetherby last month all market signals suggest this is a straight up match bet between Paul Nicholls' Modus and See The World from the Emma Lavelle stable. Modus, a £190k purchase for JP McManus, won in first gear on hurdle debut two weeks ago and is the very well supported odds on favourite while See The World all but pulled up on his racecourse debut nearly a year ago and traded 1000.0 in-running before charging back into contention and winning very easily by four-and-a-half lengths. As we feel Charmix is just below the level of form the others have showed so far we are willing to lay him in the place market at around 2.111/10.
Onto our first back of the day in the 14:10 2m7f Novice Chase where Dan Skelton's Value At Risk has been very well supported on Chase debut, in from 6.86/1 to 3.7511/4. Having his first day at the races since finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival, Value At Risk has always been thought of as a chaser in the making. With a wide margin victory at Newbury 11 months ago a flat galloping track seems to suit him better and the fact he runs here without penalty is another small bonus. We will follow the backers in here and suggest taking 3.7511/4.
Moving onto our each way selection now, in in the 14:45 Novices Handicap Chase, where African Gold from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard has been backed in from around 16.015/1 to 8.27/1. Despite being a very promising Novice Hurdler earlier in his career (second to At Fishers Cross in 2013 Albert Bartlett) this Kings Theatre Gelding has suffered badly of late with only three starts in the last two years and not completing any of them (FPP). His return last month does not spark any enthusiasm on first glance, but it was his first run in nearly two years and you would have to make excuses on the soft ground cause, with the trainers suggesting he will always appreciate better ground. Today's good to soft going description reads much better for followers of African Gold while Ryan Hatch takes 3lbs off his back and we are willing to take an each-way chance at 8.27/1.
Place Lay Charmix at 2.111/10 in the 12.30 at Newbury
Back Value At Risk at 3.7511/4 in the 14.10 at Newbury
Back African Gold EW at 8.27/1 in the 14.45 at Newbury
Follow The Money bring you their three best bets - a back, a lay and an each-way - every day on Betting.Betfair.
Follow The Money October P/L
Staked 93.0 pts
Returned 126.78 pts
P/L + 33.78 pts
For October, calculated before commission, based on prices at time of publication