Today's Follow The Money selections all come from the Betfair-sponsored meeting at Newbury.
Affaire D'Honneur was last seen at Kempton in December where he chased home Zulu Oscar who beat him by only a length and both were well clear of the rest. He's likely to improve from this and both trainer and jockey believe there is much more to come. The ground should suit and this lightly-raced gelding is still unexposed and offers good value for an each-way selection."
We start with the Betfair Denman Chase, run over 2m7f at 14:25, where the Paul Nicholls-trained Rocky Creek has been well supported from 3.211/5 in to 2.8615/8. He is a tricky type who pulled up on his last run at Aintree, but excuses can be found for this run as he lost interest after being badly hampered by a faller and didn't seem to take to the first-time cheekpieces. The market seems to have forgiven him this and presumably are focusing more on his previous effort when he ran second to Don Cossack at Down Royal. A return to this form gives him very strong claims in what is a weaker affair. The conditions are ideal for him today and with jockey Sam Twiston-Davies bullish about his chances we recommend a back.
Rocky Creek's performance could influence the market's reaction to Paul Nicholls' Champion Chase winner, Dodging Bullets, who leads the market in the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase, over 2m at 15:00. However, early moves have not been favourable, and we cannot ignore the current lack of market confidence - having traded as low as 1.434/9 he has now drifted out to 1.814/5. We have not seen Dodging Bullets since last year's Festival and although he is the class horse in the race it's likely that today is preparation for his Cheltenham defence. With this in mind may not be pushed too hard and opens up the possibility that the well-supported Top Gamble may spring a surprise. At the price we going to recommend a lay of the favourite.
The 2m Betfair Hurdle, run at 15:35, is a fascinating race where some of the big trainers have multiple entries. Willie Mullins has five runners while Philip Hobbs and Jonjo O'Neill both saddle three but it is the sole runner for in-form trainer Harry Whittington that is creating a positive interest in the market. French import Affaire D'Honneur has been supported from 13.5 in to 10.09/1. Last seen at Kempton in December where he chased home Zulu Oscar who beat him by only a length and both were well clear of the rest. He's likely to improve from this and both trainer and jockey believe there is much more to come. The ground should suit and this lightly-raced gelding is still unexposed and offers good value for an each-way selection.
Back Rocky Creek @ 2.8615/8 in the 14:25 at Newbury
Lay Dodging Bullets @ 1.814/5 in the 15:00 at Newbury
Back Affaire D'Honneur Each Way @ 10.09/1 in the 15:35 at Newbury
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Follow The Money January P/L
For January, calculated before commission, based on prices at time of publication