Follow The Money: Tramp to come up smelling of roses

Follow The Money
15 February 2014

Zarkandar is a lay today

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Today's Follow The Money movers run at Lingfield and Wincanton.

"It's worth noting that Scruffy Tramp's trainer Alan Bailey has his stable in excellent form of late with four winners from his last ten runners."

Back Scruffy Tramp @ 5.79/2 in the 14:50 at Lingfield

The 14:50 class 3 handicap over 6f at Lingfield makes for an interesting race and there has been a decent gamble building momentum this morning. Scruffy Tramp has been the subject of solid support, his price sliding from a high of 8.415/2 in to 5.79/2. The selection wasted no time getting off the mark last year winning his first two races - one on the all-weather here at Lingfield. His last run at Kempton in January was over one mile and the suspicion is that he didn't quite stay that day, so the drop back to 6f is in his favour, as is the first time visor. It is also worth noting that trainer Alan Bailey has his stable in excellent form of late with four winners from his last ten runners. Scruffy Tramp is taken to continue that excellent run and a back is the call.

Just the six runners line up for the 15:35 2m Grd2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton in what looks a fascinating race. The two market principals - Melodic Rendezvous and Zarkandar set a very high standard with Grumeti also an obvious danger in receipt of 8lb from the front pair. However, the market is negative for Zarkandar who has drifted from 2.546/4 out to 2.8815/8. This Paul Nicholls inmate sets a very useful standard on his day and obviously likes the course having won two from two at the track including this race in similar conditions last year. However, the suspicion is that he could probably do with a little further than the two mile trip he faces today. Chief market rival Melodic Rendezvous will relish the conditions and could still find a higher level of form than he has previously shown being only lightly raced.

Our second positive of the day is in the lucky last 16:45 2m Novice Hurdle at Wincanton where Fascino Rustico has been the subject of a major plunge in from 3.814/5 in to 2.47/5. This race really doesn't look too strong - in fact at time of writing only five of the 16 runners are priced below 40.039/1. Carry On Sydney looks to be the main threat to our selection but he has been a big negative in the market. Fascino Rustico has arguably shown the best previous form of these anyway and with improvement sure to come, everything points to the win today.

Recommended Bets
Back Scruffy Tramp @ 5.79/2 in the 14:50 at Lingfield
Lay Zarkandar @ 2.546/4 in the 15:35 at Wincanton
Back Fascino Rustico @ 2.47/5 in the 16:45 at Wincanton