Follow The Money: Taylor made for a lay at Catterick

Follow The Money
03 December 2014

We're opposing Henderson's Taylor today

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Today's Follow The Money comes from this afternoon's meetings at Ludlow and Catterick.

"Taylor needs to see out her race to win today having traded 1.548/15 and 1.331/3 in the run in defeat on her second and third starts and we are hoping she does not find again."

Lay Taylor @ 2.6413/8 in the 14:20 at Catterick

We start with a move at a decent price for the Henry Daly-trained Kingsmere in the 14:10 Boyne Cup at Ludlow. Backed in from 9.08/1 into 7.06/1, the nine-year-old returns to chasing having been given a seasonal reappearance over hurdles. This followed a decent late season hurdling campaign in the spring, picking up a handicap at Cheltenham in April, where connections made use of a lenient handicap mark. And he looks on a good mark today over the bigger fences, at a track where he has run well on his only previous appearance, and comes out top on the adjusted Timeform ratings.

Our lay comes in the 14:20 at Catterick, a mares novice hurdle over 2m3f, where there has been opposition to Nicky Henderson's raider Taylor drifting out from 2.26/5 to 2.6413/8. You would have thought that conditions would suit with the step up in trip and better ground but the market has been taking her on and if you look at the Timeform adjusted ratings Taylor has 3lbs to find on the well supported Balmusette, who could conceivably get an easy lead. Both have the 'p' for improvement to come but Nicky Henderson's charge needs to see out her race to win today having traded 1.548/15 and 1.331/3 in the run in defeat on her second and third starts and we are hoping she does not find again.

Later on the Catterick card, in the 14:50, there has been a positive move for Kim Bailey's seven-year-old Gallery Exhibition backed from 3.9 into 2.77/4 and taking 60% of the morning volume. If you have never read Kim Bailey's blog you should start now and on it today he suggests that the ground and first time tongue tie should give him an excellent chance. This is backed up by the stat that Bailey has a 23% win ratio with first time tongue ties as opposed to a normal strike rate of 16%. He is dropping down in class here and if you paint a picture of how the race will be run then the strong travelling type should be able to track the pace of Foot The Bill and deliver victory.

Recommended Bets
Back Kingsmere @ 7.06/1 in the 14:10 at Ludlow
Lay Taylor @ 2.6413/8 in the 14:20 at Catterick
Back Gallery Exhibition @ 2.77/4 in the 14:50 at Catterick