Follow The Money: Market moves for O'Brien in another Irish Classic

The money has come for Aidan O'Brien's Tapestry

The Follow The Money team bring you bets from Newbury and The Curragh.

"Market moves can be considered hugely important in races such as this and we are siding with our layers by taking on Lwah."

Lay Lwah @ 4.03/1 16:25 in the 16:25 at Newbury 

We start at Newbury for the 13:35 Maiden for three-year-olds over 1m 2f where we have seen solid support for Andrew Balding's Smiling Stranger.  Knocking on the door in his first three starts, this Nayef-colt somewhat disappointed on his last run at Pontefract three weeks ago when failing to overhaul Westerly at long odds-on. But the feeling is that Smiling Stranger fluffed his lines that day over 1m 4f and today's drop back in trip is probably wise at this stage.  In fact the key form marker can be found when running over course and distance on his second run in May when second to Luca Cumani's useful looking Connecticut who has gone on to win at York since. That race has produced multiple winners with the third, sixth, seventh and ninth placed finishers - all well beaten by our selection - going on to register wins of their own.  In light of that and the market move from 5.14/1 in to 4.1 we are confident that Smiling Stranger can lose his maiden tag with Oisin Murphy doing the steering.

We stay at Newbury where just four runners line up for the 16:25 Conditions Stakes over 7f.  The Hannon/Hughes combo is not one to take on lightly, but the drift on Lwah is alarming having moved from an early 2.285/4 out to 4.03/1.  To be fair this two-year-old colt by Lawman has shown a fair amount of promise on his first two starts without troubling the judge. However, it appears there is a huge fly in the ointment today in the shape of the unraced but beautifully-bred Time Test (by Dubawi out of Passage Of Time) for Roger Charlton who has been backed in to an odds on 1.910/11.  Market moves can be considered hugely important in races such as this and we are siding with our layers by taking on Lwah.

It's a Classic Saturday for fans of Irish Racing with the Group 1 Irish Oaks taking centre stage at The Curragh at 17:45.  This race has been somewhat deprived of a real star by ante-post favourite, and English Oaks heroine Taghrooda, choosing to take on the colts at Ascot next Saturday.  Tarfasha who finished second to Taghrooda is worthy favourite based on that form today, but the Betfair market is somewhat uneasy and she rates as a slight drifter currently. It may not be too surprising to note that the one for the money, and our second back recommendation of the day comes from the Aidan O'Brien trained battalion - he saddles five of the field of 11.  

Joseph O'Brien has elected to take the mount on Tapestry today and the market has responded accordingly with the price shift looking confident having moved from 9.08/1 in to 6.25/1.  Admittedly there have been a few raised eyebrows over the move on this one (we expected a move for Ryan Moore's Marvellous) - she has yet to race over further than a mile, though it can be argued she is bred to do so and her 1000 Guineas run at Newmarket in May was a total flop. Just three lengths back to Rizeena in sixth place in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last month reads far better, and the hope is that young Joseph has chosen well today with the extra half mile bringing out improvement for Tapestry to weave her way in to backers hearts.


Recommended Bets
Back Smiling Stranger @ 4.1 in the 13:35 at Newbury 
Lay Lwah @ 4.03/1 16:25 in the 16:25 at Newbury 
Back Tapestry @ 6.25/1 in the 17:45 at Curragh 

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