Follow The Money: Back Gilzean to nod a winner at Southwell this afternoon

Gilzean runs at Southwell this afternoon
Gilzean runs at Southwell this afternoon

Today's Follow The Money come from the meetings at Fontwell, Naas and Southwell...

Recommended Bets

Lay Wilton Milan @ 1.748/11 in the 14:10 at Fontwell 
Back Bishops Road @ 4.77/2 in the 14:50 at Naas 
Back Gilzean @ 3.39/4 in the 16:00 at Southwell 

We start at Fontwell in the 14:10 2m6f Novice chase opener where the market seems to be rejecting Wilton Milan in what looks like a match bet with Leo Luna. Although still favourite, Paul Nicholls' runner has drifted in the market from an opening 1.538/15 to a current 1.748/11 and the trainer comments suggest he is now fully handicapped with a question mark over the heavy going. Alternatively Leo Luna has won on heavy and was running well last time before falling at the last. If he bounces back from this then it should be a close contest and we are going to side with the market in suggesting a lay of Wilton Milan at a short price.

Over to Ireland for the 14:50 2m4f Novice Handcap Chase at Naas. Bishops Road has been steadily backed from a high of 5.45 in to a current 4.77/2 having been as low as 4.43. Henry De Bromhead's gelding needs a big run today to justify his entry in the Novice Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, however if he can build on his impressive win last time out in a competitive handicap at Leopardstown then he could have a big chance at the festival. A winner over hurdles, he took to chasing slowly with modest efforts in his first two starts, however the penny dropped last time with a faultless jumping exhibition helped by holding a prominent position throughout, a repeat of these tactics would surely see him build on that performance and we suggest backing him to edge this today.

Finally to Southwell for the 16:00 Handicap Hurdle where there has been plenty of money for Gilzean who is looking for a quick follow-up to his emphatic 23 lengths win at Lingfield on Monday. Alex Hales' runner has performed well all winter with two wins from four starts and the manner in which he won last time suggests he might still have plenty in hand even with a 7lb penalty. The market seems to think this is the case with his price strengthening from an early 4.66 in to a current 3.39/4. As a result, we are offering Gilzean as our final back of the day.

Recommended Bets

Lay Wilton Milan @ 1.748/11 in the 14:10 at Fontwell 
Back Bishops Road @ 4.77/2 in the 14:50 at Naas 
Back Gilzean @ 3.39/4 in the 16:00 at Southwell 

Follow The Money 2015 P/L

Staked: 93pts
Returned: 117.11pts
P/L: + 24.11pts

Based on prices at time of publication, calculated before commission. Correct to end of January.

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