Today's three Follow The Money selections come from the afternoon meetings at Exeter and Towcester...
In the 12:40 at Towcester we find today's negative and it comes in the shape of Alan King's Dusky Legend. Matched as low as 2.255/4 she is now out to 3.412/5 and there appears to be no confidence behind her whatsoever.
She made a winning start to her career in a bumper at Fontwell on Good to Soft and destroyed the opposition that day despite carrying joint top weight. However, her next start was in a Listed bumper at Cheltenham when she was well beat into sixth and seemingly just outclassed in better company. The ground there was soft that day however and she will encounter the same going here today and given her first run was in less testing conditions it may be a case that she wants the better ground.
Quinlandio has been well backed in opposition for Brendan Powell after a very solid second last time to Taj Badalandabad who has since won a Novice Hurdle and achieved a rating of 129. With the company again looking strong today and the ground a potential concern, a lay is advised.
Next up we head to Exeter for the 12:50 where Harry Fry sends out Nitrogen for just the second time since purchasing the gelding in 2007 for 170,000 Euros. He won his maiden point start in April 2012 and the half-brother to Best Mate has been well supported in the market for powerful connections moving from a high of 5.14/1 in to 2.982/1.
He has not been seen since that win however and that absence is a worry. It has to be taken slightly on trust that any issues have now been overcome, but, if he is ready to go he is clearly the best related horse in the race and he could still, although starting off in Maiden Hurdles at a late age, prove to be a top class prospect.
Rebecca Curtis' horses struggled in the main yesterday to get their heads in front so main danger Winter Walk is opposable at the top of the betting and this makes us even further inclined to recommend a back bet on this unknown, yet exciting gelding.
Finally in the 15:10 at Towcester we find our final selection. Tony Carroll's Thinger Licht has been very well backed, his price strengthening from 8.415/2 in to a current 6.411/2.
He runs today off of a career low mark having once been rated 128 over Hurdles and a high of 115 over fences. He has some poor runs to put behind him but the handicapper is slowly releasing their grip and today looks a fantastic opportunity for him to finally get another win under his belt in what looks a fairly weakly contested handicap chase on paper. The market support would lead you to believe the yard think this new mark of 95 is definitely workable and if he can recapture anything like his best hurdles form over fences then he should brush aside today's opposition.
That may be a touch ambitious given his recent form but favourite Vinnieslittle Lamb is up five pounds for his previous win and the other runners seem to lack Thinger Licht's previous class or indeed the knowledge of how to win a race. For these reasons, given the market support, a back is advised.
Lay Dusky Legend @ 3.412/5 12:40 Towcester
Back Nitrogen @ 2.982/1 12:50 Exeter
Back Thinger Licht @ 6.411/2 15:10 Towcester
Follow The Money 2014 P/L
Year to date (end of November) on recommended prices
P/L: + 48.83pts (before commission)