Follow The Money: Return Spring can shock the favourite at Warwick

FTM's each-way selection on Thursday comes from Warwick
FTM's each-way selection on Thursday comes from Warwick

Today's Follow the Money focuses on the meetings at Beverley, Perth and Warwick...

Recommended Bets

Lay Seafront @ 2.3811/8 in the 13:50 at Beverley

Back Braavos @ 5.14/1 in the 15:00 at Perth

Back Return Spring each way @ 12.5 in the 15:10 at Warwick

Starting with our lay in the 13.50 at Beverley, a five furlong novice event for juvenile fillies, where Seafront has moved out to 2.3811/8 from 1.758/11. While the booking of Ryan Moore is a positive and she showed definite promise on her debut in a maiden event at the Newmarket Craven meeting, there is little formbook evidence to back up her initial market superiority. She is the first runner to meet the track again from that race, so gauging the level of form is tricky. Of her rivals, Zig Zag Girl seems to have similar form claims, Clem Fandango has been the subject of a sustained gamble (19.018/1 into 4.47/2), and Red Shanghai's trainer Tom Dascombe sent out the winner of the race in which Seafront made her debut. A lay is the call.


On to the 15.00 at Perth and our back bet, Braavos, who has been supported in from 8.07/1 to 5.14/1. Trained by Philip Hobbs, who boasts a 21% strike rate at the track over the last five seasons, Braavos has shown steady progression as his career over obstacles has developed. Indeed, on his second hurdles start he split subsequent Betfair Hurdle winner Agrapart (now rated 150) and subsequent Imperial Cup winner Flying Angel (now rated 144). With such strong collateral form lines to his name it was little surprise he was a cosy winner at Exeter from a mark of 113 on New Year's Day. He disappointed slightly last time out, but provided he is back in top form, he is more than capable of winning from his current mark of 119.


For the each-way selection we go to Warwick for the 15.10, where Return Spring has been backed in from 16.015/1, to 12.5. A competitive three mile handicap hurdle, The Eaglehaslanded is unsurprisingly favourite for the title chasing Paul Nicholls team, but this is a very quick turnaround following his win just a week ago. Rated in the low 140s just over a year ago, Return Spring has gone the wrong way over fences but sprung back to life over hurdles at Ascot recently. Attempting to make all, he raced lazily but kept on for a close up third from a lowly mark of 122. Raised just one pound, he remains too competitively weighted to ignore in a race which lacks many other obvious pace angles.


Recommended Bets
Lay Seafront @ 2.3811/8 in the 13:50 at Beverley
Back Braavos @ 5.14/1 in the 15:00 at Perth
Back Return Spring each way @ 12.5 in the 15:10 at Warwick


***


Follow The Money
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Follow The Money P/L, March

Staked: 93.0
Returned: 134.22
P/L: +41.22

For March, based on prices at time of publication, and before commission

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