Follow The Money: Back Carrigmoorna Rock to roll over rivals

Newbury has survived the weather
Newbury has survived the weather

Newbury and Leopardstown have thankfully survived the weather and provide today's Follow The Money movers...

Recommended Bets

Back Highland Lodge @ 3.55/2 in the 13:35 at Newbury 

Lay Vyta Du Roc @ 3.45 in the 14:10 at Newbury 

Back Carrigmoorna Rock @ 3.052/1 in the 14:35 at Leopardstown 

Starting with Newbury's 3m2f Handicap Chase at 13:35, where Highland Lodge has come in to 3.55/2 from 4.81. Emma Lavelle's capable eight-year-old was fourth in last season's Hennessy Gold Cup at this venue off a mark of 143 so has obvious claims for this on a rating of 130 with claimer Richie O'Dea removing a further 10lbs. He lost his way a little after that Hennessy but has hinted at a return to form lately; he was up with the pace for most of the Beecher chase over the big Aintree fences before fading after a mistake and wasn't beaten far behind Victor's Serenade at Chepstow. Today's assignment is a massive drop in class compared to that level and on a favourable soft surface the selection should be able to dominate proceedings.

At Newbury a cracking renewal of the Grade 1 2m5f Challow Hurdle lies in store at 14:10, where our lay of the day Vyta Du Roc has eased in betting out to 3.45 from 3.052/1. Nicky Henderson's ex-French five-year-old has won four out of four since crossing the Channel including Grade 2s at Cheltenham and Sandown so sets a good standard. However he only just squeaked home in those two, after coming under pressure a long way out and, as this represents his toughest test to date, there is mileage in taking him on with a fiercely competitive field of promising novices, all with recent winning form. Nigel Twiston-Davies' Blaklion and John Ferguson's Parlour Games are both battle-hardened after a titanic tussle at Cheltenham while a case can also be made for Arpege Dalene with the Paul Nicholls operation in such rude health. Henderson's headline horses have failed to fire so far this season and the suspicion here is that one or two will prove stronger at the finish so we're happy to oppose the favourite.

Finally over in Ireland virtually all the early Exchange money on Leopardstown's 14:35 Grade 3 Mares Hurdle, run over 2m4f, has come in for Carrigmoorna Rock, steadily supported from 4.03/1 down to 3.052/1. It's a competitive little heat for a valuable prize and it's Analifet from the Mullins yard who boasts the standout piece of form, winning a Grade 3 juvenile race at Fairyhouse a year ago, in some style. However a lacklustre reappearance, sent off odds-on at Naas only to finish last of the five runners, means she's got some big questions to answer here, while her front-running style over this longer trip may just set things up for something else to steal the spoils. Our selection is proven over this distance and won well at Newbury on soft ground last time, landing a listed event by six lengths, and as she never seems to run badly Robert Tyner's six-year-old looks the most reliable betting proposition in today's race.

Recommended Bets
Back Highland Lodge @ 3.55/2 in the 13:35 at Newbury 
Lay Vyta Du Roc @ 3.45 in the 14:10 at Newbury 
Back Carrigmoorna Rock @ 3.052/1 in the 14:35 at Leopardstown
 

Follow The Money 2014 P/L

Staked: 991pts
Returned: 1039.83pts
P/L: + 48.83pts (before commission)

Correct to the end of November, based on prices at time of publication

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