Both Doncaster and Ludlow could be decent Placepot cards. A couple of fiddly races at the first-named course nudges us towards Shropshire.
"In some ways Qasser is an ideal Placepot horse, the type priced up attractively on the basis that he won’t go through with his effort once he gets there. That’s of no concern to us, of course, so long as he gets there in the first place."
14:10 - None of the three that dominate the betting are absolutely risk-free. The closest is probably Dan Emmett, who has stamina to prove but has offered plenty of clues, including on the Flat, that he'll stay this far.
14:45 - Royal Redemption is of obvious interest switched to handicaps, though for our purposes Rascal is a better proposition. His quirks shouldn't be enough to keep him out of the three, something that only interference did in a better race at Ascot last time.
15:15 - The risk attached to Waldorf Salad is that he's an inexperienced chaser, but that didn't hold him back at Exeter on his debut and therefore it shouldn't over these soft fences. For that reason he gets in ahead of Bally Sands, the other we'd have considered.
15:45 - This is a difficult leg, in which we'll need to take two. Kerryhead Storm is the obvious starting point, being in fine form and second over C&D last time. With Eastern Witness inexperienced and Guanciale unreliable, Sublime Talent is a better option for our second slot, his recent run here likely to have brought him to full fitness.
16:15 - In some ways Qasser is an ideal Placepot horse, the type priced up attractively on the basis that he won't go through with his effort once he gets there. That's of no concern to us, of course, so long as he gets there in the first place. Ascendant gets our second slot, having proved generally consistent over hurdles (unseated third on chasing debut last time).
16:45 - The real edge at Ludlow is in the fences: so many otherwise poor jumpers get away with it here and that's why we can be confident of Twirling Magnet capitalising on his big form advantage. It's only eight months since he shaped well from a BHA mark of 140 and his hunter debut last time can be excused (saddle slipped). He has a stone in hand if he manages to avoid similar misfortune here.
14:10 - 2
14:45 - 2
15:15 - 1
15:45 - 1, 4
16:15 - 2, 11
16:45 - 2
= 4 lines