Kempton Placepot: Wednesday November 21

Tonight's fixture at Kempton is the subject of Keith's Placepot

With Warwick off and Hexham featuring several trappy, small-field affairs, it's an all-weather venture to Kempton this evening for our Placepot.

"All things being equal, you’d expect a last-leg listed race to be played with a straight bat, but looking at the market that could well be over-cautious."

16:00 - Having decried the races at Hexham, here we begin with what's surely a candidate for the worst maiden of the year. Staggeringly, Place That Face, a maiden of six races who looks firmly exposed as modest, is worthy of being odds on and, boasting a fairly consistent profile if nothing else, rates as a banker for us.

16:30 - It would be strictly incorrect to term Sakhee's Pearl a course specialist, as she's shown her form elsewhere on a number of occasions, but her profile as this course is especially admirable and, following a luckless run when seventh over C&D last time, she seems in form enough to strike. Three-year-old Brimstone Hill is in the form of his life and looks a solid backup.

17:00 - With there being more depth to this maiden, we can afford to omit odds-on favourite Rangi in the hope of an upset. Brownsea Brink is an obvious selection so long as you can forgive a below-form run on soft ground at Goodwood last time. This sharp test at seven furlongs should suit him well. Bold And Free took a big step forward from first run to second and should have few issues with the switch in surface, so he's our second choice.

17:30 - Another maiden in which we can overlook the likely favourite (Watcheroftheskies) with a couple of solid alternatives. The two in question are Secret Rebel (already placed over C&D) and Sam Spade (made a promising debut at Lingfield early in the month).

18:00 - The good news is that leg five is not a maiden. The not-so-good news is that, with us already having opposed a couple of warm favourites, the sensible option is to bank on Derwentwater, who looks to have been let in lightly on his handicap debut. He hinted towards much better when mid-field in a good Yarmouth maiden last time, certainly enough to think he can better a BHA mark of just 62 now starting in nurseries.

18:30 - All things being equal, you'd expect a last-leg listed race to be played with a straight bat, but looking at the market that could well be over-cautious. For example, the apparent assumption that Captain Ramius is at his best on soft ground is, if not a red herring, then certainly overstated by current prices. There's little reason to think he won't stay over a sharp mile, while his handicap form this year has been admirably consistent, making him a sound Placepot choice as well as good value. Hat-trick seeking Belgian Bill also looks bigger than might have been expected, as he's Timeform top-rated and is evidently effective both on the surface and over a mile.

Selections:

16:00 - 7
16:30 - 1, 8
17:00 - 2, 3
17:30 - 6, 7
18:00 - 2
18:30 - 2, 3
= 16 lines

 

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