Channel 4 Racing Tips: Fattsota can take advantage of very tempting mark

Fattsota will appreciate rain, but he doesn't need it says Tony

Day four of Royal Ascot is upon us already with all six races again being shown live on Channel 4. In-form Tony Calvin is here to highlight the best bets on a difficult looking card...

"He looks primed for this and is simply a well-handicapped horse trading at the wrong price."

Back Fattsota 16:25 Royal Ascot @ 20.019/1 or better


I was very surprised to see Fattsota trading as one of the outsiders in the Wolferton Handicap at 16:25 and he rates my value play of the day at odds of 20.019/1+.

I was expecting him to be among the market leaders. And if any significant rain materialises leading up to the race, he just may become one of them.

This is a horse who is two from two at Ascot - albeit over 1m4f with cut in the ground - and who has slipped down to a very tempting mark of 103 despite some satisfactory runs of late.

Granted, 1m2f on fast ground wouldn't be ideal. But he has form under those conditions and he finished an excellent fourth to Encke over this trip at Sandown last season and ran well when fifth to Resurge over it at Epsom last time, too.

He looks primed for this and is simply a well-handicapped horse trading at the wrong price.

I was also taken aback to see Highland Colori trading at 15.014/1+ for the Buckingham Palace Stakes at 17:35.

This is also a horse that goes well at Ascot - running blinders in big field handicaps on his only two starts here - and comes here after thumping a decent Newmarket field by over three lengths over 7f on fast ground last time.

Off a 7lb higher mark, he looks the bet here. And a pretty decent one, too.

The Sir Michael Stoute camp would have been little short of mortified to see Hillstar beaten off handicap marks of 83 and 92 so far this season, but it is a measure of how highly they rate this horse at home that they plough on regardless and pitch him in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at 15:05 after those handicap defeats.

What makes him worth chancing at double-figure odds is that I am keen to take on Battle Of Marengo at around the 1.768/11 mark, and if the Derby fourth doesn't run up to that level of form, then this is probably as winnable a Group 2 as you are likely to see.

The stable believe that 1m4f on good of faster ground could just bring out the best in Hillstar. It will need to, that's for sure, but outside of the favourite he has little to fear.

This column is geared towards to finding big-priced winners but sometimes you just can't ignore the evidence of your own eyes and the formbook, and Sandiva looks a 2.757/4 chance in my book in the 14:30, and not the 3.814/5+ chance she is trading on Betfair at the time of writing.

It is unwise to be strident when assessing juvenile races at this meeting, as so many are full of regally bred and unexposed horses, but Sandiva has already shown a level of form that would comfortably see her home in front of an average renewal of the Albany.

Her two length defeat of Heart Focus in a listed race at Naas last time is far superior form than that shown by her main market rivals, Frankel's half-sister Joyeuse and Aidan O'Brien's Wonderfully, and Richard Fahey's runners have been in great form at this meeting all week.

As the stalker of Sky's Georgie Thompson told me at Ascot today, she looks a shorty worth following.


Recommended Bets

Back Fattsota 16:25 Royal Ascot @ 20.019/1 or better
Back Highland Colori 17:35 Royal Ascot @ 15.014/1 or better
Back Hillstar 15:05 Royal Ascot @ 12.011/1 or better
Back Sandiva @ 3.814/5 14:30 Royal Ascot @ 3.814/5 or better


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