The Breeders' Cup presents a world of betting opportunities this weekend but Tony Keenan has chosen to concentrate on the turf races...
"Impassable is the improver in the race and should come on for the run last time, form that puts her in the mix here anyway. She seemed to win that race with more in hand than the bare margin and the ground not being too quick will suit."
Feigning an in-depth knowledge of American form for a day and half's racing each year would be disingenuous and like most punters this weekend I'm looking at these horses for the first and perhaps only time. With that in mind I'm going to focus on the turf races where I have some idea of the worth of the form.
The Juvenile Turf at 19.30 on Friday kicks of proceedings and it's an interesting one for followers of sectionals.
Favourite Hit It A Bomb produced a very fast closing fraction at Dundalk last time while Cymric was the moral winner of the Lagadere on Arc day, narrowly failing to get up having been held up off a slow pace. Both horses seem to have been hard done by with the draw, pitched into two outside stalls, but that is now factored into their prices and perhaps overly so. I can see a case for both though not enough to tip either up here.
I do like the claims of Alice Springs in the Juvenile Fillies Turf later on Friday's card. Aidan O'Brien has a fine record at the Breeders' Cup, admittedly from many runners, and this Galileo filly brings some strong form lines to the table.
Her third in the Moyglare, with subsequent Group 1 winners Minding and Ballydoyle ahead of her, looks the best piece of two-year-old form for fillies all season. A defeat in the Lowther next time looked down to the trip - she should reverse form with Illuminate over this distance - before she bolted up at Newmarket last time, looking like the mile would suit. She is a worthy favourite at [5.0].
After trying unsuccessfully to get Golden Horn beaten in the Champion Stakes and the Arc, I'm not going to try to do the same in the Turf. This is a weaker race than he's been contesting lately and while Found is a talented filly, she looks better over 10 furlongs. The Filly and Mare Turf and the Mile look more appealing betting races.
Legatissimo has been the best filly of a very strong crop for much of 2015 and she will take all the beating in the Filly and Mare Turf. Ten furlongs seems her optimum trip, she is well drawn and looked better than ever last time. That said, [2.0] is a bit tight after such a long season and I prefer to back one each-way at a bigger price.
Sentiero Italia has been relentlessly progressive all year and while she took a step backwards last time, she looked to be given too much to do on the day. Her previous form reads well, particularly her comfortable defeats of Miss Temple City who ran fourth behind Ervedya, Lucida and Found in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
That form puts her in the mix with the Euros and with a good draw in stall two, it would be no surprise to see her revert to the positive tactics she used prior to last time in a race where there is no obvious pace. [21.0] is too big.
The Mile has been a race for the French and the home team with the last winner trained in Ireland or the UK being Ridgewood Pearl in 1995. I don't expect that to change this year as I'm against Time Test; he looks better over 10 furlongs than the mile and beating Custom Cut just isn't good enough form to win this.
Esoterique sets a good standard having improved this year and deserves to head the market while Make Believe won the Foret well off a strong gallop. At the prices though, I prefer Impassable at [9.0].
She's the improver in the race and should come on for the run last time, form that puts her in the mix here anyway. She seemed to win that race with more in hand than the bare margin and the ground not being too quick will suit.
Back Alice Springs @ [5.0] the Juvenile Fillies Turf
Back Sentiero Italia @ [21.0] in the Filly and Mare Turf
Back Impassable @ [9.0] in the Mile