It's been a wet week, and the weather forecast predicts more is on its way at Carlisle for Wednesday - but that shouldn't hinder Tough Remedy.
With a fair bit of experience in Novice events, he has a number of solid runs to his name without a win, and his mark of 77 for the switch to Nursery company looks more than fair.
The juvenile shaped like he wanted a bit more of a test than the 6f he encountered at Ayr last time, he was beaten two lengths and lacked a bit of pace at the end. He was also tapped for toe at Carlisle earlier in the season.
This will be his first outing as a gelding, and the 6f in soft (with more rain forecast), could slow the others down, and I expect him to be running on at the end.
Tough Remedy's best run came in soft going at Wetherby - hopefully he can improve today.
Roger Varian's Lahore has Group race entries later in the season in the Joel Stakes and the QEII - so running in a handicap at Doncaster from 86 immediately gets the klaxon sounding. He is the pick at 3/1 on the Sportsbook.
He held a Group 2 entry for this meeting too, so clearly he isn't lurking in the shadows as a dark horse here. The mark of 86 could underestimate him, though.
Lahore travelled very well back in July to win at Winsdor on handicap debut, and at the time held an entry in the Lennox Stakes. Connections opted to head to Deauville instead for a Group 3 last time - but he didn't fire at all.
His Windsor victory came at 6f, and the race has been boosted by the second Quench Dolly winning a nice handicap at Goodwood. The third has subsequently performed well in very competitive races. He'll have no trouble with 7f today, and he won his Maiden at the track.
Wednesday's Recommended Bets
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: +1.25
Previous week: -2.50