A couple of horses stood out here from their marks for this sprint. Penny Dreadful is a quick front-runner and drawn furthest away from the stands' rail. She is consistent and runs from a low weight and a rating of 57.
However, I am pulled towards Ivan Furtado's Normal Equilibrium from 74 - and that is some way below his peak efforts.
In fact, back in 2015, he was running off 100 and this represents a drop in grade - especially from his third at Epsom this season in a 0-95. That came over the flying 5f there, and he showed some dash. He's now running from a 2lb lower mark in a much weaker race.
Formerly with Robert Cowell, he clearly isn't as good as he was, but he has performed with credit in all six runs for Furtado.
Normal Equilibrium is drawn in 6, which probably isn't a bad thing as they can converge down the centre. Penny Dreadful is likely to force it, but there's a chance she could be trapped out by herself without any cover.
Alan King's stayers on the Flat are always worth a second look at Nottingham, and his Tyrell is worth more than a glance in this 1m6f handicap. Lugano is bidding for the four-timer, but there isn't much point in tipping up a [1.65] shot.
Tyrell is simply a no-nonsense type, armed with a good attitude who stays well. He has won at Colwick Park previously over 2m, and as a front-runner, there is only one way he is going to go on Monday evening. Well that's the plan anyway!
As a winning juvenile hurdler, there's a clue that he has plenty of stamina. There certainly should be a bit more to come from his current mark of 72.
Tyrell was progressive last term with a couple of handicap wins, and I liked his return to the Flat last month in a race at Kempton. He finished third in a 0-85 with the visor on first time. He was well clear before being swallowed up by a couple of progressive horses. The second in that race (Charismatic Man) has recently pitched up in a decent contest.
He was nabbed at Kempton on a night where not many horses were successful from the front.
The selection will also like the quick ground.
Monday's Recommended Bets
Alan's Bets of the Day - P/L
This week so far: -3.00pts
Previous week: +2.50pts