Alan is looking to take on a short priced favourite at Ayr today and has another selection to follow from Leicester...
"He gets in here 14lbs below his last winning mark which was a Class 3 handicap and he will relish the conditions today"
The odds on favourite Hills Of Dubai is not one to dismiss lightly as he was an impressive winner when making all on chasing debut last time out. He has had a 7lb rise in the ratings for that success and while that shouldn't be too much of a problem at the prices I much prefer to take him on with Nicky Richards' charge Un Noble. He is a course and distance winner who would have needed his last run after a break of 230 days. He gets in here 14lbs below his last winning mark which was a Class 3 handicap and he will relish the conditions today. All four of his career wins have come on soft or heavy ground and that last run will have put him right for this.
As much as I really like Lucy Alexander as a jockey I don't fancy Calvigny, he is yet to get his head in front from 11 attempts over the larger obstacles and was disappointing on his latest start over three miles here. The drop drop back in trip should help but I can't see how he could beat Hills of Dubai even if putting in a career best. Road To Gold possibly has a better chance as he is a real mudlark and conditions won't bother him but 423 days off the track takes him out the equation for me. I think the handicapper has given Un Noble a chance of landing his fourth chasing success and getting the better of the odds on jolly.
Venetia Williams runs Du Soleil in this Class 3 handicap hurdle over two and a half miles and I think the six-year-old looks more than capable of taking this. He is lightly raced and apart from falling very early at Haydock in December he hasn't finished outside the top three, either winning or been within a couple of lengths of the winner, he is consistently right their a the business end of his races. With just the five career starts he is a progressive and unexposed type and certainly looks to be the one on here.
The one that looks like he could give him the most to do is the Henry Daly trained top weight Head To The Stars, another consistent type who is a course and distance winner and did well at Wincanton last time when winning by a length and a quarter off a mark of 122. He is 5lbs higher here and when he has run off this mark in the past he has been well beaten in three attempts. The two runners are very closely matched at the head of the betting market but I think Du Soleil will go off favourite and justify that position in the field.
2018 Overall (prior to this week): -4.25 pts
This week so far...
Staked: 12 pts
Returned: 20 pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts