One of Alan's runners yesterday was a non-runner and the other finished third, today he has two selections from Chepstow and Warwick...
"He is sure to improve and be fitter following his first run over the larger obstacles two weeks ago"
Step up in trip is ideal for Oxwich Bay
Evan Williams saddles what I consider to be a very worthy favourite in this contest, Oxwich Bay who was a decent hurdler last year, winning once at Ffos Las and finished second on four other occasions but he caught the eye when he finished a very respectable fourth here two weeks ago on his chasing debut over a trip that probably wasn't ideal and it was his first start for 206 days. He is stepped up in trip today (an extra half a mile) and is sure to improve and be fitter following his first run over the larger obstacles, he always looked like he would make a better chaser than hurdler and he can start to fulfil some of that promise today.
There are two runners in the field that I think are on very workable marks and could be each-way options, Flaming Charmer is one at around 7/1, he won this race last year from the same mark so it would be no surprise to see him there or thereabouts at the business end of the race and although Atirelarigo (8/1) hasn't been seen for a long time (April 2017) he is also worth considering at an each-way price on what could be a feather weight based on his old form. While both of these warrant consideration for a place finish I don't see either of them finishing ahead of Oxwich Bay.
Biddy The Boss is ultra consistent
There are plenty of unknown types in this Mares Novices Hurdle but one that has some form behind it is the Irish raider Biddy The Boss, trainer Gavin Cromwell has a decent strike rate in the UK and I can't imagine he is coming over here just to make the numbers up. She was a Maiden hurdle winner back in September and carries a penalty here but she has the standout form in this field. The five-year-old Mare has 17 starts under her belt and two wins to her name, she is a consistent type who always runs her race and looks well placed to make it three career victories.
The one to beat looks like being She Mite Bite from the Nicky Henderson yard, there isn't much to go having only run in two pointers but she did win one of those, as is usually the case in these types of races the market will require watching as any substantial support for the Henderson charge would be a cause for concern.
2018 Overall (prior to this week): +83.08 pts
This week so far...
Staked: 10 pts
Returned: 4.63 pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts