It's the final day of racing before the Christmas break pre-King George, and with Bangor postponed, Alan Dudman has found three bets at Southwell for Tuesday...
"It's very harsh to write him off in terms of racing on this unique terrain after just the one start, so I'm open-minded concerning his ability to handle it better second time around. Plus the only previous attempt came when he was still a maiden with Luca Cumani."
David Barron's Twin Appeal ran a fine race in defeat recently at the track, and can justify his market position in Tuesday's feature over seven furlongs.
The four-year-old was pitched into a decent handicap at Southwell earlier this month, beaten by a winter improver called Westwood Hoe. That was his debut run at the track and he travelled nicely up with the pace.
He was drawn 12 that day, and has a better berth for this race. He's unexposed on the all-weather and could be the type to improve over the next three months - picking up some decent pots along the way.
14:00 Southwell - Swinbank's newcomer can take weak contest
You would struggle to find a weaker maiden over the winter than Tuesday's contest at Southwell. And a cursory glance of the tissues very early on Monday had already priced up two of the three newcomers as first and second favourite - although Brave Richard has had plenty of experience in bumpers.
Busy Street however is the one to back here, making his first start on the flat for trainer Alan Swinbank. The three-year-old has raced before in a bumper, but was well beaten behind David Elsworth's County 'N' Western.
He was supported into joint 2/1 favouritism that day (alongside the winner in the market), but he ran too free. If he is more controlled in the race, he can have a say.
The son of Champs Elysees appeals very much on pedigree (in a bad contest); given one of his relations scored in Group 2 company in France, and another was a reasonable horse on the all-weather for Gay Kelleway (Uphold).
15:00 Southwell - Second time lucky on Fibresand?
Backing horses at Southwell always prompts me to look at sires and previous track form. For the latter, Galuppi has tried the surface once before; but the effort was a complete blow out.
It's very harsh to write him off in terms of racing on this unique terrain after just the one start, so I'm open-minded concerning his ability to handle it better second time around. Plus the only previous attempt came when he was still a maiden with Luca Cumani.
Now in the care of John Jenkins, Galuppi has slipped to an all-time low handicap mark of 61, some 19lb lower when in his 'prime'.
He's been running over hurdles this winter (where he is rated 100) and scored over the obstacles at Fakenham last month - the first success of his career.
Dark Diamond is the clear danger, but he's 0-15 albeit with proven Southwell form. He's been backed before, but there might be a bit of mileage in Galuppi as he's a stronger stayer. You should also consider him at higher prices in-play.
Tuesday's Recommended Bets (all half point)
Back Twin Appeal @ 7/2 in the 13:30 at Southwell
Back Busy Street @ 4.03/1 in the 14:00 at Southwell
Back Galuppi @ 4.507/2 in the 1500 at Southwell
Profit and loss (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Last week total: - 2.40
This week total: -3.81
Running total: +19.64