Alan landed his bet of the day yesterday at Hereford as All Is Good obliged to beat the main danger, today he has two more selections from Southwell and Newcastle...
"His last two wins at this track were over six and he is running today 5lbs below his last winning mark"
I have been a big fan of Crosse Fire for a long time, I first tipped him on this column back in 2015 and I think back at his beloved Southwell, where he has won on seven previous occasions, the time could be right for him to go in again. His trainer Scott Dixon is a specialist at the track and he has finally stepped his charge back up to six furlongs after four unsuccessful attempts at the minumum trip where he finished fourth on each occasion. His last two wins at this track were over six and he is running today 5lbs below his last winning mark, having previously won off a mark as high as 85 a couple of years ago.
The Dixon team are in good form with three winners and two places from their last 13 runners at the track and they have some decent chances today to add to that number. The main danger to the selection could be another course and distance winner in the shape of Kommander Kirkup who has been running well lately, posting two second places since his victory here. He has 2lbs more to carry round here today and while I am not sure that is too much of a burden for him I prefer to take another chance with my old friend Crosse Fire today at a tasty price.
Peter Winks won four times with Modulus in a very successful 2017 campaign, but to be fair both his runs since haven't been great, he has finished last in his previous two starts. However, there are valid reasons for the poor displays, his first run at Wetherby was when he was returning after a 235 day break and they were never going to be too hard on him that day and his run on Boxing Day at the same track was over two miles five and half furlongs in class 3 company. Today he reverts back to two miles takes a drop in class and gets to run on his preferred heavy going, three of his four wins were on ground declared as heavy against this class of opposition. So while I accept he undoubtedly has plenty to prove, especially after his last two displays, he seems to have everything in his favour today and at 5/1, I think he is worth taking a chance with.
The relatively short priced favourite in the contest is Lord County who recently broke his maiden at the third attempt over timber when scoring at Doncaster on Friday, he has to carry a 7lb penalty for that win but that is offset by Ross Turner's claim, but this is a much tougher race and in his three races to date he has been sent off at 100/1, 16/1 and 12/1 today he is quoted at 5/4, he isn't for me and he will have to produce another career best if he is to win.
2018 Overall (prior to this week): -4.25 pts
This week so far...
Staked: 10 pts
Returned: 20 pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts