Bets of the Day: Elysium Dream is back off a winnable mark

Brighton racecourse
Any rain will on enhance Elysium Dreams chances

Another winning day for Alan yesterday, and he is looking to keep the winners going with two selections from Brighton and Redcar...

"she has now dropped 3lbs below her last winning mark"

Back Elysium Dream @ 3/1 in the Brighton 14:30

Elysium Dream can take this but any rain would help the cause

Brighton 14:30

Brighton is a "quirky" course so previous form there is always a big plus, no-one knows what is required here more than Richard Hannon, he has a 23% strike rate at the track since the start of the 2015 season and he saddles the four-year-old filly Elysium Dream in this. She ran better than the bare result suggests when finishing fifth at Windsor earlier this month and she has now dropped 3lbs below her last winning mark. That win came over today's course and distance and with conditions ideal as well as the drop from eight to seven furlongs also in her favour, she should be difficult to stop today.

Only five runners are going to post for this one at the time of writing and Mamillius is a big danger, especially if the forecast rain doesn't arrive. He won here last time out with what appeared to be plenty to spare over today's trip. He has run six times at Brighton and hasn't finished outside the first three, he is an obvious threat but I think he is short enough in the market to take on. All four of his wins have come on good to firm ground and if the forecast rain arrives, it will certainly make his task much more difficult.

Boundary Lane could be difficult to catch at Redcar

Redcar 16:50

Julie Camacho's speedy filly Boundary Lane has improved on each of her last two starts, she was only beaten half a length into fourth at Newmarket last time out after winning on her seasonal reappearance at Doncaster. It looks like there is still more to come from her and I think this flatter five furlongs will be ideal for her, she also gets in here off the same mark as her run at Newmarket, which is a big plus.

I expect Graham Lee will look to get her out early but there is plenty of pace in the race, so she won't need to lead but I'm sure he will be up with the pace. She can stay six (especially on this quick ground) so even off a quick pace, she will still be galloping at the line and won't be lacking for stamina or speed. Fair Cop is the favourite at the time of writing but will have to produce another career best run off a mark of 78 and while Andrew Balding's mare is an good improving type it may just be a step to far to go back-to-back.

2019 Overall: +17.3pts

This week so far...

Staked: 8 pts
Returned: 12 pts

2018 P&L +82.29pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts

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