Bets of the Day: Back down in grade Tommy Silver could be too classy for these at Warwick
Alan found his way to the winners enclosure again yesterday when his best bet of the day obliged at Epsom and he fancies two Paul Nicholls runners today to finish his week in the tipping chair...
"back down in grade today and while he wouldn't want any more rain, this handicap mark is very fair and he could prove far too good for these rivals"
Paul Nicholls has given his six-year-old Tommy Silver some really tough tasks over fences this season, but he has only disappointed on his latest outing and he can be excused his latest defeat at Aintree as the ground wasn't right for him. He is back down in grade today and while he wouldn't want any more rain, this handicap mark is very fair and he could prove far too good for these rivals. The Nicholls team are starting to find some winners recently and with Sam Twiston-Davies in the plate I fancy they could find another one here.
It may only be a five runner race but it is not without challengers, the one I am most interested in seeing run is Tree of Liberty who is possibly the shortest priced horse I have seen beaten, he was turned over last time out at odds of 1/20. He was beaten that day off a 98 rated runner and I don't see him recovering connections' losses today. Ozzie The Oscar has been running well in some novice chases, but this handicap figure looks a little harsh on the Phillip Hobbs runner. The biggest danger looks like Sister Sibyl for the Hughie Morrison yard, a dual winner over hurdles and a big distance winner at Cheltenham six days ago. However, despite sneaking in here off a featherweight (due to go up 2lbs in the future) this is a tougher contest than her latest Cheltenahm win.
At his peak Southfield Theatre was winning Grade 2 chases off a mark of 150, he runs in this handicap chase off a mark of 138, Paul Nicholls may have found a weak race to get his 10-year-old back in the winners enclosure at least one more time. He has had 82 days off the course after being pulled up on his last two starts and hopefully that has given the Nicholls team the time they need to sort out what the issues were. Today he is also down in class and down in trip and has Harry Cobden doing the steering to give the eight time winner every chance of getting back into the winners enclosure against this field.
There are question marks over most of the rivals, but the two that worry me most are Stellar Notion who has won three times from 16 starts over fences for trainer Henry De Bromhead but out of sorts recently and has recently moved to trainer Tom George and there is every chance a change of scenery will bring around some sort of improvement but I would like to see it before parting with any cash. The other runner that may cause trouble to the selection is Remind Me Later who has a win and two places from his last three starts but he isn't the easiest of rides and he will keep jockey Joshua Moore busy, but he definitely has plenty of ability too, and I think he is the biggest threat to Southfield Theatre.
2018 Overall (prior to this week): +9.75 pts
This week so far...
Staked: 10 pts
Returned: 13 pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts