15:05 Sandown - Rod's filly can be the hottest
The angle here is simple; Rod Millman's filly Hellofahaste wants 7f, and she has the chance to step up in trip for Thursday's feature Listed Star Stakes on the Sandown card.
This tall, leggy youngster has been another to boost Hellvelyn's reputation as a sire this season. Mrs Danvers also produced the goods for her father - when landing the Newbury Super Sprint last weekend. La Rioja (rated 108) hasn't done too badly for the stallion either (and both have won on quick ground).
Millman's two-year-old shaped well on debut before going on to pick up strongly in taking fashion at Salisbury on her second outing - and she looked above average there. That race looks a bit better than I initially thought at the time.
Potentially the market will revolve around Godolphin's Calare, who scored on debut, but she'll be short enough with the step up in grade. Where as Hellofahaste has already performed with great credit when finishing second to Nations Alexander in the Listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket on her latest start. The winner loved the heavy ground that day - but our selection ran well and comes into this proven in the grade.
And whilst fearing trotting out the tired old line of "with any other trainer she'd be shorter", there is an element of truth here, and I am hoping she is a bit underrated in the market.
16:55 Yarmouth - Jack's the man to partner Ballymore
This race looks a choice between two; Hope Cove and Ballymore Castle. The former is trained by Ed Walker, whose horses are going much better after a poor start to the season.
However, Richard Fahey's Ballymore Castle is too well-handicapped to ignore. And this is a drop in class for the top weight.
His career is a bit of a mixed bag. He was a decent juvenile who went pot-hunting in the three sales races at Newmarket - but his mark suffered and was burdened with a three-figure rating he had no chance of winning from (although he ran well in some decent contests). It's a typical story with two-year-olds who suffer with ridiculous marks the following year.
It's no surprise his 2015 record was 0-6.
However, he has dropped to his lowest-ever mark of 85, and the handicapper has given him a big chance in reducing him 10lb this term. He enjoys quick ground, and ran well in the first-time cheekpieces when last seen at Pontefract in a better race.
Jockey Jack Garrity takes over, and I am hoping he can coax the horse home, as he has been a late finisher in previous races.
Thursday's Recommended Bets (both half point)
Back Hellofahaste @ 9.6017/2 in the 15:05 at Sandown
Back Ballymore Castle @ 8.007/1 in the 16:55 at Yarmouth