Bets of the Day: Buonarroti can make it a hat-trick of wins at Ayr

Four horses going for the line
Buonarroti might just have too much for these

Alan could only manage a second from yesterday's selections but for his final time this week he is looking to add to his profits with two from Yarmouth and Ayr...

"Conditions will suit and 2lbs below his last winning mark Buonarroti looks to hold a good chance in a competitive race."

Back Buonarroti @ 10/3 in the 17:20 at Ayr (Sportsbook)

Conditions couldn't be better for Declan Carroll's charge

Declan Carroll's gelding has won on his last two trips to Ayr and everything looks to be right for the seven-year-old to make it a hat-trick. Buonarroti was originally trained by Aiden O'Brien, this son of Galileo doesn't win very often but his best performances have always been on soft, heavy or yielding ground and the weather gods have presented him with similar conditions again today. He is also now 2lbs below his last winning mark and looks to hold a good chance in a competitive race. He stayed on well last time out to finish a close fifth at York earlier this month and this course and distance winner, despite carrying top weight, might just have enough to beat these.

His main dangers according to the market are Palindrome who has won once from 23 starts, though he does arrive here on the back of two placed runs over 12 furlongs. While I suspect he will have no problem getting the extra furlong today, he doesn't tend to find much at the business end of his races. Perhaps a bigger danger is the Mick Channon trained Beer With The Boys, with Franny Norton in the plate, this six race maiden wasn't disgraced in a higher grade at Newbury last time, he is dropping in grade today and he should stay.

It's time for Polybius to get back in the winners enclosure

David Simcock boasts a great win strike rate with his runners at Yarmouth, in particular those runners sent off 9/1 and under. Since 2014 such runners have produced 23 winners from 68 runners (34% strike rate), one I think the horse who will add to the stat is Polybius in this Class 3 handicap. He may not of won since August 2015 but the booking of Jamie Spencer is an obvious plus as he needs to be played late and with conditions underfoot ideal, I think he can pick these off late in the race.

He's gone close in several big handicaps this summer and with just the eight runners going to post in this, I am not expecting any traffic problems today. He is dropped in grade, is off what looks a very dangerous mark and has a top jockey on board. If he can't break his long losing sequence today then you have to wonder if he ever will!

2018 Overall (prior to this week): +79.38 pts

This week so far...

Staked: 10 pts
Returned: 22 pts

2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts

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