Alan scored with Thistlecrack at 4/1 yesterday. His Sunday selections include a stayer at Carlisle and a potentially weak finisher at Leicester...
"One horse that improved for a step up in trip last time was Prairie Lad, and he was strong in the market at 3/1 on Saturday night. He scored on handicap debut for his final run last term; winning quite easily over 3m2f at Kelso."
15:00 Leicester - Bally ripe for in-play bet
Bets were not easy to find over the two fixtures for Sunday's racing, but Bally Lagan makes appeal for an in-running lay in the 2m4f Handicap Chase, and he's a horse I've been waiting for, following his previous effort.
The run in question was at Leicester, and he travelled far better than his official rating of 82. He ran on the pace, and looked a real danger before emptying in the closing stages. Bizarrely he finished last of six, and yet was matched at 1.4840/85 in the winner market.
The seven-year-old has idled in the past, but that run might have been down to fitness too. It was his first appearance since June 2014, and for me, he just ran out of puff in the closing stages.
However, he's had good chances to win races in 2014, and he rattled off four defeats In-Play at 1.16, 1.60, 1.30, and 1.40. To add to the bet, there might just be a couple of stronger stayers in this field - especially Expanding Universe and Monty's Revenge.
Bally Lagan should move smoothly given the conditions, but I am not sure about a finishing effort, so will recommend a lay during the run at around 1.402/5.
Sunday's card at Carlisle will be a proper test of stamina in heavy conditions, and the 15:20 over 3m1f will provide a searching examination of those credentials. And given this will be the final race on the card, they'll have the worst of the ground.
One horse that improved for the extra yardage last time was Prairie Lad, and he was strong in the market at 3/1 on Saturday night. He scored on handicap debut for his final run last term; winning quite easily over 3m2f at Kelso.
He's only been raised 2lbs for that success, and he really improved for the step up in trip. The ground was soft that day, and given he is related to Max Pride (a winner over 3m6f), there should be more to come from this unexposed stayer in a low grade - especially from a mark of 101.
The Sandy Thomson yard have only had two runners in November, but both ran OK. And the jockey I admit, I don't know an awful lot about in this Amateur Riders' Handicap, but she has ridden a handful of winners over fences and hurdles.
Sunday's Recommended Bets
Lay Bally Lagan @ 1.3130/100 in-running in the 15:00 at Leicester
Back Prairie Lad @ 3/1 Sportsbook in the 15:20 at Carlisle
Profit and loss since column launch (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Last week total: + 3.40
This week total: + 2.00
Running total: +27.85