Yesterday's win selection traded at 1.01 and got beat, while Hassle was matched at [1.86] in the place market but failed to trouble anyone. Alan Dudman heads to Kempton for a lay, and a late night bet at Woodbine for Sunday's selections...
"David Simcock's horse ran in the Ascot Champion Stakes last year, so presumably connections feel that by swerving the British showpiece, they have a decent chance of netting the first prize of around $500k contesting an easier race"
15:20 Kempton - Lay in-running Maputo
There's a chance that Maputo could be around [1.90] before Sunday's Listed contest over hurdles, with John Ferguson's novice bidding for his fourth straight win - and there will be plenty that want to back him at those odds. Ferguson's strike rate is over 50 per cent from his last 13 runners.
It goes without saying regarding the profile, and he strikes a remarkable likeness (in terms of rating and a spell in Meydan) to the stable's Sea Lord - who won this back in 2013.
Maputo's jumping has improved, and from his three wins to date; Perth, Stratford and Huntingdon - he's reached an official rating of 138. However, this will be his toughest assignment yet, and Kempton will provide a stern examination of his jumping credentials at a quicker pace.
It's not a bad field, two of the yards that start early have runners - Charlie Longsdon and Dan Skelton, whilst in-form Neil King has one, and Paul Nicholls saddles San Benedeto. So there's enough there.
Going with a short-price lay, you need to think the horse can win (to get the very short price), which of course Maputo can. But if we can test his hurdling in a higher grade, it's worth throwing in a cheap lay here.
So unappealing were the other races on Sunday at Kempton and Bath, my betting boots will be of the Canadian variety for the evening, as Woodbine stages a Grade 1 over 1m4f - a race with strong UK interest that will also be shown on ATR.
For the Brits, Cannock Chase (ridden by Ryan Moore), Second Step and Sheikhzayedroad will form quite a strong challenge, and I'm happy to take the Sportsbook price of 7/1 on the latter - who was one of the biggest eye-catchers of all time recently at Chester.
David Simcock's horse ran in the Ascot Champion Stakes last year, so presumably connections feel that by swerving the British showpiece, they have a decent chance of netting the first prize of around $500k contesting an easier race.
Perhaps some of the North American Grade 1s aren't the strongest, and the selection has already won at Woodbine - when lifting the Northern Dancer in 2014 (watch here). His stamina was a big asset that day, coming home strongly on the rail. Jockey Martin Lane only has two more runners to contend with in this field, so tactics might be the same to use his staying power.
Sunday's Recommended Bets
Lay Maputo in-running @ [1.51]
Back Shiekhzayedroad @ 7/1 Sportsbook price in the 22:42 at Woodbine
Weekly P /L (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Last week total: + 2.95
This week total: +3.50
Running total: +20.45