It was unlucky for Alan yesterday with his main bet well-backed but just failing to get home after trading at 1.364/11 in-running, today he has two more selections from Haydock and Musselburgh...
"today he drops a furlong in trip, has his ideal conditions and is only two pounds higher than that run at Leicester"
At the prices I prefer the Ben Pauling charge Creep Desbois to the current market favourite Crievehill. The favourite has to overcome a 9lb rise in the weights after running out a wide-margin winner at Sandown earlier this month. I'm just not sure exactly what Crievehill beat that day and the wide margin victory maybe flattered him a bit. The Nigel Twiston Davies horse is the worthy favorite and I am not saying he can't overcome that penalty, just that he could be vulnerable and I would prefer to take him on with Creep Desbois today at the prices.
Creep Desbois has been progressive this season and building on a victory at Fakenham when returning from a 58 day break to finish second in this grade at Leicester by just a nose. The six-year-old was only just caught on the line that day over two-and-a-half miles, today he drops a furlong in trip, has his ideal conditions and is only two pounds higher than that run at Leicester. He is improving all the time and is a solid jumper, I think he can get the better of Crievehill today.
Michael Appleby is a trainer in form with five winners from his last 12 runners and Caspian Prince can continue that run as he makes his debut for the yard today. He is the class horse in this company, he was a Group 2 winner at the Curragh last season and he's fit from runs on the all-weather earlier this season, including a conditions success. He does have to concede a penalty but has twice won off higher marks than this in the past and at 7/1 in this field he looks too big to me.
The current favourite is Alpha Delphini who won two similar races in the autumn including over course and distance when winning the Flying Scotsman, I am sure he will run his race but at 6/4 he is plenty short enough for me in a contest like this and I am happy to oppose him at these prices.
2018 Overall (prior to this week): +5.25 pts
This week so far...
Staked: 0 pts
Returned: 0 pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts