It's a busy day of quality racing, including the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh, but it is two races from Goodwood and Haydock that has caught Alan's eye...
"This five time winner is now back on his favoured ground and can bounce straight back to form"
The cards didn't fall right for Lucky Deal
You can forget Lucky Deal's last run when he missed the break and finished well down the field on unsuitable heavy ground in the Chester Cup. Instead, I would prefer to focus on the four-year-old colt's previous second, by a length, to the Chester Cup winner and stablemate Making Miracles when they met at Ripon on good ground in April. This five time winner is now back on his favoured ground and can bounce straight back to form.
The one he will have to beat today is the progressive Eden Rose, from the Mick Channon yard, however the filly has taken a sharp rise in the weights and all her best work has been the all weather. She will have to overcome another 5lb hike in the weights if she is to complete the hat-trick. She is now 20lb higher in the weights than when she last ran on the turf in October and that might be asking a bit too much.
Dubai Legacy can make it three in a row today
Dubai Legacy's only career defeat came in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, but after two wins as a juvenile the colt confirmed his potential when making a successful handicap debut at Newcastle earlier this month, returning off a 295 day break. He was well on top at the finish that day and that form has been franked recently as the third, Whats The Story, has subsequently come out and won at York last week. Saeed bin Surooor's charge makes plenty of appeal in search of the hat-trick off just a 3lb higher mark today and is taken to carry on progressing.
The one I think that will chase him home is Flashcard for Andrew Balding. He was another smart performer as a two-year-old and he doesn't look too have been too harshly treated by the handicapper off an opening mark of 93. He has already been gelded, this is his first attempt at seven furlongs and his first start for 251 days so he has plenty to prove today. I am sure he will continue to improve but I prefer Dubai Legacy today.
2019 Overall: +17.3pts
This week so far...
Staked: 2 pts
Returned: 0 pts
2018 P&L +82.29pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts