Vino Griego's Sandown win at 8.07/1 on Sunday has taken Alan Dudman's total profit back up to +26.85. Today's three bets come from Carlisle and Kempton...
"Firstly, King Oswald's sire is Street Cry - which is a must around this venue for a newcomer. Secondly; on pedigree and relations he might perform better than the odds of 5/1."
This looks a tremendous race for the track with some really exciting horses running over fences for the first time.
Paul Nicholls saddles Silsol, whilst Seeyouatmidnight and Kingscourt Native add a bit of lustre to this £10,000 Novices' Chase. My pick will be Maximiser however, who decimated Novices' Hurdle fields twice last term; 11 lengths at Haydock, and just the 36 lengths at Carlisle.
Both successes were in soft ground, and I'm convinced he'll be a three miler - so today's conditions should not present a problem.
His trainer Simon West could have a really nice prospect on his hands (stating the bleeding obvious here!).
It's interesting that connections have wasted no time in running over the larger obstacles, and his big asset last term over hurdles was his fluent jumping. He could take to these fences really well.
He's been off 11 months but hopefully this can be the starting point for a decent career.
14:25 Kempton - Dansili filly can step up from Windsor
Having seen several fancied horses over the weekend get bogged down in the mud, I'm quite happy turning my attentions to the All-Weather.
Thai Noon was a filly that looked interesting on debut, and money came for her at 7/2 when she made her first start at Windsor 28 days ago.
A slow beginning in rain-softened ground wasn't ideal, and the daughter of Dansili was hardly ever in the race. The ground looked a bit more testing at the Berkshire that afternoon (than advertised), and with her sire, the weather Gods were against the three-year-old.
Her yard (James Fanshawe) are in form, she has a gorgeous pedigree, and my thinking is that given the surface, she will at least have a better chance to display her true ability.
16:10 Kempton - Newcomer makes plenty of appeal
It wouldn't be a Dudman column without a nod to my 'go-to boys' Godolphin - who are represented in this Maiden by trainers John Gosden and Charlie Appleby.
The latter scored with a juvenile first time out at Redcar last week (and most of Appleby's have needed a run), and he saddles King Oswald in this event. Gosden sends out Cachao.
Firstly, King Oswald's sire is Street Cry - which is a must around this venue for a newcomer. Secondly; on pedigree and relations he might perform better than the odds of 5.509/2. His half-brother Greatest Hits won at Kempton as a two-year-old (on second start), whilst another relation Rhythmic won as a juvenile and scored on polytrack at Wolverhampton.
The other Godolphin runner has a pacier ledger, but he is a shorter price.
Monday's Recommended Bets (all half point stake)
Back Maximiser @ 7/2 Sportsbook price in the 13:15 at Carlisle
Back Thai Noon @ 9.08/1 in the 14:25 at Kempton
Back King Oswald @ 6.005/1 in the 16:10 at Kempton
Weekly P /L (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Last week total: + 5.50
This week total: + 4.40
Running total: +26.85