Both of Alan's selections obliged yesterday and today he is sticking with the Newmarket card and has two picks at double figure prices...
"the trainers juveniles often improve over the season and this horse is bred specifically to win these sort of races"
The improving Monarch Of Egypt can deliver in the Middle Park
The impeccably bred colt Monarch Of Egypt - by US Triple Crown hero American Pharaoh out of a Galileo mare - has improved in each of his three starts and despite racing keenly on his last start he was beaten just under a length in the end. He made a winning debut at Naas in April, and he has chased home Siskin in both subsequent runs, the Railway Stakes and his latest effort coming in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes. I think the Aidan O'Brien charge can improve past Siskin today as the trainer's juveniles often improve over the season and this horse is bred specifically to win these sort of races. Even if he doesn't quite provide his powerful yard with their seventh win in this race he should be very close and with nine runners going to post and 10/1 available he looks a good each way investment.
This looks like an excellent Group 1 race though and there is plenty of quality on display but the one I think Monarch Of Egypt will have to get ahead of, if he is to win this is the market principle Earthlight. Another unbeaten colt, he stayed on well to land the Group 1 Prix Morny last time out and is the highest rated in this line up, his trainer trainer Andre Fabre always warrants respect with his UK raiders, but I think he could be vulnerable to a speedier rival today and that could just be Monarch Of Egypt.
Godolphin's Bedouins Story has a strong profile in the Cambridgeshire
A 35 runner handicap obviously isn't easy to sort out but with Betfair Sportsbook paying six places, I wanted to have a crack at solving this huge puzzle today. Using various stats and looking at the make up of recent winners I managed to narrow the field down to five runners. My shortlist was, Mordin, Bedouins Story, Baltic Baron, Le Don De Vie and Good Birthday.
I eliminated Mordin due to the 7lb claimer in the shape of Marco Ghiani, not because I am questioning his ability but more that there hasn't been a claimer on board a winner in recent times and I think he might be high enough in the weights anyway. While I think a double figure draw is advantageous, the last seven renewals of this have seen the winner drawn lower than 30, Baltic Baron (drawn 30), the fancied Le Don De Vie (33) and Good Birthday (32) will all have to buck that trend if they are to be successful.
That leaves me with Bedouins Story, on his last two starts he posted career bets marks so is obviously on the upgrade, he has won four times (from 13 runs) on the turf and should be well suited by the extra yardage if his breeding is anything to go by. The Godolphin runner has form on various ground conditions and drawn 12 (in the middle) will give jockey Hector Crouch plenty of options, at 14/1 and six places he is the each-way selection.
2019 (prior to this week) : -4pts
This week so far...
Staked: 2 pts
Returned: 5.95 pts
2019 P&L -0.05pts
2018 P&L +82.29pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts