For the final time this week Alan is looking to finish his time in the tipping chair with two selections from what looks a tough second day at York...
"I think she will improve again for the step up in trip and the booking of Frankie Dettori is eye catching."
I could do with a Piece Of Paradise to see out a tough week
Trainer James Stack (or Fozzy as he is known) looks like he has a live chance in this with Piece Of Paradise at a decent price (9/1). The Irish raider got off the mark at the third attempt when landing a Tipperary maiden last time out, where the addition of a first time headgear combination appeared to bring about marked improvement. I think she will improve again for the step up in trip and the booking of Frankie Dettori is eye catching, it suggests to me that her connections are confident of another big run this afternoon.
The favourite is Show Me Show Me for Richard Fahey, he won the Brocklesby at Doncaster in March, but he has failed to add to that success from his four subsequent starts and is not for me. I think Mums Tipple has more claims to head the market, this colt by Footstepsinthesand made all to land a Class 2 Ascot maiden on his debut last month and that form has received a few boosts since. However, the fact that these two have to carry 3lb and 5lb penalties respectively has to be a concern.
Obviously 22 runner juvenile races aren't the easiest to try and sort (often a pin is the best way) but with the Sportsbook paying five places and a fifth of the odds, I think it is worth taking a chance on Piece Of Paradise at the prices.
There is no reason to doubt Liberty Beach over six furlongs today
The Lowther stakes is a Group 2 juvenile race for fillies and Liberty Beach looks a worthy favourite after her win in the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood three weeks ago. This is another selection making her first attempt over six furlongs but if she stays, and I suspect she will, then there doesn't look too much in the field to trouble her. Based on her breeding you would think that six furlongs won't be a problem and she certainly hasn't looked like it is beyond her in her last two starts, especially at Goodwood where she produced a decisive turn of foot to put the race to bed having initially been denied a clear run.
The filly has won four of her five starts to date, with her sole defeat coming when drawn away from the action in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. Even though she was on the wrong side of the track she still managed a more than respectable fourth that day. No doubt this is the filly's toughest task to date and she is up against some quality two-year-olds, perhaps most notably and her biggest threat will come from Under The Stars who caused an upset in the Keeneland Stakes in July, which in itself is useful form.
Aidan O'Brien is always a danger in these contests and his charge Precious Moment isn't without a chance at an each way price. She traded at the minimum 1.011/100 in running at the Curragh in a Group 2 over today's trip, where it looked like she was home and hosed until the unbeaten Albigna just got to her in the final strides. A similar performance today could see her go close again and at 9/1 she could well fill one of the place positions, but I don't see her beating Liberty Beach.
2019 (prior to this week) : +5.96pts
This week so far...
Staked: 12 pts
Returned: 5.5 pts
2019 P&L -0.54pts
2018 P&L +82.29pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts