Bets of the Day: Larry can at least get his head in the frame at Newbury
Alan Thompson returns to the tipping chair today with two selections from Newbury and Musselburgh...
"Eight runs on this going or softer has produced four wins and two places"
Larry was on the wrong ground last time
Gary Moore's six-year-old landed a decent handicap chase at Sandown on his penultimate outing and looked to be progressive but his jumping let him down at Leicester last time out. However, there may have been more to it than just a poor round of jumping, I think the fast (good to firm) ground was against him that day. When Larry has encountered good or faster ground he hasn't even made the frame, finishing last of 19, unseating his rider, falling and twice finishing fourth out of seven and five-runner fields. Clearly he likes to get his toe in as when you compare that to his eight starts on good to soft or slower, he has won four times and been placed twice, the ground is currently declared good to soft and we wouldn't want it any quicker than that but at [9.0] I think he is worthy of a half a point each-way punt.
There are two horses that I think he will have to get the better of today, the first is Hurricane Dylan who was beaten at Taunton last time out, but that could well be a race worth following, so it will be no surprise if he goes close this afternoon. The other is Kings Walk who has looked progressive since going back over fences, he is back off his last winning mark and was only beaten by what looked a well treated rival at this venue last time out.
Very Satisfied to back the jolly
Iain Jardine has a worthy favourite here in the shape of So Satisfied, he has been in great form of late and fully deserved his half length win over course and distance last month. He showed a great attitude when he was pressed at the last, but then pushed along and kept on well on the run in to secure the win. He's only 3lbs higher today and given his past form, in this field I had him odds-on to follow up for his in-form yard, so was pleased to see him quoted at [2.25] on the Sportsbook.
The second favourite, Kovera, was pulled up on his penultimate start and finished a distant 28 lengths behind the winner last time out, he has some decent form if you go back to November but will have to find that and a bit more to beat So Satisfied, in my opinion. The next best is Present Flight for Lucinda Russell, he has winning form on the track and over today's trip but hasn't won since 2015 and the 10-year-old was beaten 32 lengths last time at Carlisle. The yard are also on the cold list with just one winner from their last 24 runners. I think the two time course winner So Satisfied looks to have a very good chance to make it a hat-trick of wins at the course.
2019 Overall: +1.75pts
This week so far...
Staked: 0 pts
Returned: 0 pts
2018 P&L +82.29pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts