No joy for Alan Dudman yesterday, so he turns his thoughts to the jumping cards at Southwell and Sedgefield on Tuesday...
"However, it's nagging me he couldn't get past a real tough one just eight days ago. Drifter won a poor race last time, whilst Ian Williams (who has hit a bit of form) saddles the 'potential' horse Howaboutnever."
14:20 Southwell - Back Shady Glen
Supporters of Shady Glen last week at Warwick will not like me for reminding them of his late fall. I empathise, as I backed him myself.
Don McCain's Court Of Law won the contest eventually, but if Shady Glen had not tipped up, the prize money would have gone to Graeme McPherson's six-year-old. He had just started to assert in the race, and backers believed so too - matched at 1.402/5.
Prior to his mishap last week, he was jumping really well, and those Warwick fences can be really tricky. He is taking quite a drop back in trip here to try the minimum for the first time - so I'll assume he'll be gunned out to gain a rhythm. The ground will also suit. You should also consider throwing in a higher price in-running to get matched (if he doesn't set the pace).
Sue Smith's seven-year-old should have a good chance in this small field handicap chase now that he is down to a mark of 110.
You have to forgive a really tame ending to his previous campaign. He's had a break, and his best performance came on good ground when scoring at Newcastle - where he really impressed in his jumping.
Cut The Corner is in the race, he's a serial placed horse and has a 1.01. However, Swing Hard still has a bit of potential, even though his profile suggests he is far from consistent. But I would rather take him at a price of 6/1.
15:40 Sedgefield - Back-To-Lay Ever So Much
Ever So Much really should have won last time out. The six-year-old was running all over Dartford Warbler at Uttoxeter and was matched at a low in-running of 1.341/3. He was out-battled and out-gunned, but it's hard to crab the effort too much as the pair were seven lengths clear.
That was also a better affair, and this looks a drop in grade for the son of Westerner. These conditions will suit; good ground at 2m4f on a speed favouring track.
However, it's nagging me he couldn't get past a real tough one just eight days ago. Drifter won a poor race last time, whilst Ian Williams (who has hit a bit of form) saddles the 'potential' horse Howaboutnever. I'll throw in a short-price lay for the first time this week, because Ever So Much looks a good trading tool.
Tuesday's Recommended Bets
Back Shady Glen @ 3.505/2 in the 14:20 at Southwell
Back Swing Hard @ 6/1 Sportsbook price in the 14:55 at Southwell
Back-to-lay Ever So Much from 3.8014/5 to 1.654/6 in the 15:40 at Sedgefield
Weekly P /L (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Last week total: -3.30
This week total: +1.25
Running total: +14.95