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Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Some confident bets at Ascot and Wetherby

Tony Calvin
01 November 2019

ITV are showing races from three jump cards on Saturday

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There's ITV racing from three National Hunt meetings on Saturday afternoon and our resident tipster Tony Calvin is in confident mood ahead of some competitive action...

"So hopefully this has been the plan for a while, and Diable De Sivola certainly has a leading chance on his Sandown third in a good time on his penultimate start."

Back Diable De Sivola at 9.08/1 or bigger in 13:35 at Ascot

It is jumps all the way now - apart from the November Handicap at Doncaster next week, obviously - and I am going to fight shy of looking at the Breeders' Cup here.

Dipping in and out of American form once a year is not a recipe for betting success and the temptation to stick with the European horses, simply because you know them, can lead to a very blinkered approach.

And it is not as if there aren't plenty of domestic punting alternatives, as ITV4 stage nine races from Ascot, Wetherby and Down Royal. Good ones, too.

Stick wit Sivola

Let's start with Ascot, where thankfully my two ante-post plays on Tuesday have made the final field (at this stage anyway), and are much shorter prices, which helps.

I managed to snaffle some 25/1 win-only about Diable De Sivola for the 2m2f175yd novices' handicap chase at 13:35 and I see no reason to desert him now.

Ascot Jump 956.jpg

The switch to Gary Moore (who had two similar sorts in here at the five-day stage) from Nick Williams is no bad thing - though "Coo Star Sivola" Williams is no slouch when it comes to training - and the selection's new handler won this prize in 2017, and has also had a few runners go well in it in recent years, too.

So hopefully this has been the plan for a while, and Diable De Sivola certainly has a leading chance on his Sandown third in a good time on his penultimate start.

He is 1lb lower here and has a good record when fresh, so I am hopeful of a big run. Obviously, the 25s has long gone but he still rates a small bet at 9.08/1 or bigger.

I will be having a press-up myself, for all there are clearly a few in here, notably Pingshou and Darling Maltaix, who you have to be worried about.

Two of interest but no bet for me

We may as well kick on with Ascot in chronological order and next up is the 2m1f handicap chase at 14:10, and this is a pretty tough one to call.

That said, Caid du Lin and Speredek are my definite two against the field.

The former is from last year's winning stable, has run some of his better efforts at this track and comes here on the back of an excellent return effort at Chepstow. He has a lot to recommend him, not least his course-and-distance defeat of Speredek last November.

The runner-up could well turn the tables as he has been dropped 4lb since his last chase start, which allows him to get into this 0-150 handicap, and he clearly goes well when fresh and at this course.

However, there are others in here that like to go forward too, so he may have to try and burn them off early, otherwise Speredek could have been a back-to-lay angle into the contest.

I do think both are fairly priced at around the 6/1 mark but, on balance, I can let the race pass without an interest given the depth of the handicap. They would be the two to concentrate if you aren't as disciplined (or boring) as me, though.

Man has Plenty going for him at a price

I just hope that Diable De Sivola and Jolly's Cracked It get to the start okay on Saturday, as I am very happy with my 16/1 each way position on the latter, too.

I am a bit surprised to see Harry Fry's 10yo wearing a tongue-tie for the first time in the 2m handicap hurdle at 14:45 as that obviously hints at some sort of issue with his breathing. And I am bit worried about the ground turning soft, too, as he ideally likes a decent surface.

Both of those factors, as well as his price now being half of what it was on Tuesday, means I won't put him up afresh here but he clearly loves this place - and finished a narrow third in this race in 2015 - goes well fresh, and is just 2lb higher than when beating Chatez by 6 lengths at this track on his reappearance last November.

He has a huge chance at the weights and his stable is in very good form.

If you are looking for one at a price though, then the outsider of the field, Man Of Plenty, is surely the one at 38.037/1 or bigger.

He is the joint-oldest in the field alongside Jolly's Cracked It, but the prospect of another 7mm of rain on Saturday is very much in his favour and he has dropped to an enticing mark again, just 4lb higher than when winning by 7 lengths in heavy ground at Sandown last season.

The cheek pieces the he wore that day are on back on here - he has been tried in a visor and blinkers on his last two starts - and he is more than capable of making his mark here, as he is at his best on a right-handed track on testing ground.

If Ascot get the rain, he could run much better than his odds suggest.

Larry can make us very happy

The four ITV4 races on Ascot are superb, as they are all decent handicaps and betting heats - exactly what terrestrial racing should be about - and the Sodexo Gold Cup at 15:20 is a class affair.

I was going to keep it simple and tip the 2017 winner Go Conquer until the forecast put me off for the good-ground performer.

Gary Moore likes to target this Ascot meeting it seems and I hope he has another big day here as Larry at 10/1 each way, five places, with the Betfair Sportsbook looks a proper bet.

Moore won this race last year and in 2016 (and he had the favourite in 2017) and Larry looks very interesting.

He is only 4lb higher than when winning over 2m4f at Sandown on good ground on the final day of last season, but he stays this trip well on the evidence of his previous second over an extended 2m7f at Newbury, his only previous start beyond 2m4f.

So he is unexposed as a stayer - indeed, connections were talking about him in bet365 Gold Cup (3m5f) terms after that Sandown win - he is a progressive 6yo, and it won't be any problem for him whatever the weather does, as his form figures on soft or heavy ground read 21431. And obvious that career-best effort to date came on good.

He is highly likely to be fit and firing for such a valuable prize on his reappearance, and double-figure prices look far too generous.

Vintage has a massive chance at Wetherby

I won't get involved in the good race in Ireland - the 3m Champion Chase has cut up to just five runners but it is a good race, all the same - but I will at Wetherby, where Oak Vintage looks worth a sizeable nibble at 6.611/2 or bigger in the 13:20.

He has already been gnawed at in the betting on Friday afternoon, in fact, and you can see why as he ran okay over a 2m6f trip that stretched him at Stratford last month and was dropped a generous 3lb for it.

Wetherby jump 1280x720.jpg

Back to an extended 2m3f on a track where he has run many of his better efforts, and he looks to have a massive chance off a mark of just 113.

He finished a fair second off a 14lb higher mark than this over course and distance on Boxing Day - and was rated 17lb higher around this time last year after winning at Sedgefield - and the handicapper has given him every chance of winning this.

Aso the answer in Charlie Hall

Lady Buttons has an obvious chance in the 2m mares' hurdle at 13:55 and odds of 7/4 or bigger look very fair.

But I can always resist at those kind of prices and the same is true of the seven-runner staying hurdle at 15:05.

Unfortunately, the same number have confirmed for the Charlie Hall Chase at 15:40 which takes out the each-way angle.

I was half-tempted by the form horse Aso at 7/1 or bigger, as he does have some form at 3m and he would take a fair bit of stopping if running to the level of his 2m5f Ryanair second.

In fact, I looked at his good record when fresh and was fully tempted, so I am going to suggest backing him at 7.06/1 or bigger and, with a nod to his slightly suspect stamina, also put in an in-running lay on him at around the 2/1 mark.

Good luck on a busy punting day. I will be driving to Ascot after the rugby where I hope the race goers will be sulking after a South African win.

If England prevail, I will raise a grudging smile, I guess.

PROFIT AND LOSS TOTAL +221.0

April 14 2017 to Nov 1 2019 inclusive (all recommended exchange bets are settled at Betfair SP)

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Recommended bets

Back Diable De Sivola at 9.08/1 or bigger in 13:35 at Ascot
Back Man Of Plenty at 38.037/1 or bigger in 14:45 at Ascot
Back Larry at 10/1 each way, five places, with Betfair Sportsbook at 15:20 at Ascot
Back Oak Vintage at 6.611/2 or bigger in 13:20 at Wetherby
Back Aso at 7.06/1 or bigger in 15:40 at Wetherby (and consider an in-running lay at 2/1).