Arc Weekend 2016 Betting Preview: Postponed and Promise look the ones to beat

With Longchamp undergoing renovations, this year's Arc will be at Chantilly and Postponed looks the one to beat.
With Longchamp undergoing renovations, this year's Arc will be at Chantilly and Postponed looks the one to beat.

France hosts its premier race meeting of the year over the weekend at Chantilly and Tony Keenan thinks Postponed is the one to beat in the feature...


"Aidan O’Brien again has a strong crop of juvenile fillies this season as we saw with his one-two in the Cheveley Park on Saturday and Promise To Be True might prove the pick of them in the long-term."

Back Promise To Be True @ 10/3 to win the Prix Marcel Boussac with the Sportsbook

The 2016 iteration of the Arc is an underwhelming one, a product of the Irish Champion Stakes being strong and the entire crop of middle-distance horses being weak, and the race was further diluted by the withdrawal of Le Cressionnaire with a problem in recent days.

There remains a possibility, albeit slim, that something like Almanzor or Minding could be a late switch but as it stands this looks Postponed's race to lose.

Postponed is marginally better over 12 furlongs than 10 but any discrepancy is slight as he ran close to his best in the Juddmonte; if there is to be improvement, it could be for fitness as that was his first run since the Coronation Cup in early June.

That York form hasn't particularly worked out though he remains the best on figures, both time-based and official, and it's reasonable to expect a peak performance come Sunday - while his season has been long, beginning in March at Meydan, it has not be arduous as this will only be his fifth start of the year. At around 3.02/1, he looks the right price and I wouldn't be rushing to oppose him.

The Eastern raider Makahihi won the Prix Niel with a bit in hand but looks below the standard of the previous Japanese contenders (all of whom have been beaten) while Found keeps finding one too good at this level and may have had a track bias in her favour last time.

Harzand can be forgiven his run in the Irish Champion Stakes when struck into and it is likely that this and not the Leopardstown race was his big target. Even so, that was not the ideal prep and he would ideally prefer more ease.

New Bay looks to be running in the wrong race and would be better suited to the Champion Stakes at Ascot, 10 furlongs with cut what he wants rather than a mile and a half on fast ground, while Order Of St George is hard to back. He didn't seem to want it in the finish of the Irish St. Leger and might have had enough for 2016; it is worth remembering that he had a rushed preparation for Royal Ascot which may have taken its toll.

Of the rest, Fascinating Rock would have been interesting but was ruled out on Tuesday though Highland Reel could be overpriced in the place only markets.

There were positives to take from his run in the Irish Champion Stakes or at least valid excuses; the ground was too soft, he went plenty hard enough up front and was hindered by racing on the slower going up the rail. His previous effort at York behind Postponed was excellent and can be marked up a little; Seamie Heffernan allowed the winner first run that day and he'll be better over this trip.


***


Of the other races at Chantilly, the Marcel Boussac stands out as one to get involved in with Promise To Be True looking a bet.

Aidan O'Brien again has a strong crop of juvenile fillies this season as we saw with his one-two in the Cheveley Park on Saturday and Promise To Be True might prove the pick of them in the long-term. Her fifth place effort in the Moyglare is underwhelming on the surface but there were excuses; it was her first run in nearly two months and the vibes beforehand were that she would need it and she shaped that way too.

The seven-furlong trip looked too sharp and she came off it earlier than most but came home quite well under considerate handling and it would be no surprise if we saw a different filly on Sunday.


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Back Promise To Be True @ 10/3 to win the Prix Marcel Boussac with the Sportsbook


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