Ante-Post Betting: 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas

Ante-post RSS / / 27 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

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Sea The Stars lands last year's 2000 Guineas

Sea The Stars lands last year's 2000 Guineas

"The one reservation I have about his chance is his ability to act as well on the prevailing fast ground as he did with dig in the turf as a juvenile, hence he remains odds-against at around [2.6]."

Will the favourites have their way at Newmarket? Brondesbury weighs up the fields for this weekend's big races, which look likely to be run over fast ground.

Timeform have a very clear idea where the winners of the first two classics will come from with St Nicholas Abbey 7lbs clear of his nearest rivals, both of which, Awzaan and Canford Cliffs, are doubtful stayers.

The one reservation I have about his chance is his ability to act as well on the prevailing fast ground as he did with dig in the turf as a juvenile, hence he remains odds-against at around the [2.6] marker on Betfair. Granted good to soft going on the day, I suspect he would be a [1.66] shot.

Fast going does give a squeak to both Craven winner Elusive Pimpernel [6.6] and the Dewhurst Stakes runner-up Fencing Master [21.0]. The value obviously lies with the latter, reportedly working well at home, and certainly capable of improving on his unlucky in running second at Newmarket. Available at [4.9] for a place, the O'Brien 'second string' could very well be a big mover on the day.

Of the other bigger priced runners, Al Zir is very interesting. He was certainly put in his place in the Racing Post, but always promised to make a much better three-year-old.

I saw the colt work at Newmarket last week and physically he has developed into a lovely looking individual, strengthened up and matured and it showed in his gallop. On Timeform ratings he is over a stone off the Irish favourite, but with Godolphin flying at the moment he could close the gap sufficiently to claim a place (4.2) and along with Fencing Master is a possible springer in the market place.

The 1,000 Guineas also has a clear favourite on the Timeform ratings in Special Duty [4.4]. It's not so much a below par three-year-old debut that worries me, but more her ability to see out the trip, should it be an end to end gallop on Sunday.

Music Show is solid [6.6] form wise, but the greater value is possibility held by Rumoush [8.2]. She showed a classy turn of foot to win the Fielden Stakes over nine furlongs and although a trip beyond mile may prove to be her optimum trip later in the season, she has a high enough cruising speed to be a major player here if they go a decent gallop.

In that sense, she is a filly to played or laid in-running depending on the gallop through the first quarter mile or so.

Seta [7.4] would be my major investment were there to be any give in the ground, but at the time of writing the weather looks unlikely to break.

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