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The 80-20 dissected

80/20 RSS / / 15 November 2007 / 3

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Nick Shiambouros has certainly made an impact since taking to the Betfair Radio airwaves with his 80-20 bet proving particularly popular...

But while it's a winner with the listeners and readers of this website, we didn't know quite how successful it was as. Loa and behold, this week a challenge was laid down by one listener to find out if it was profitable or not.

While here at Betfair Towers we have never had the expertise for that sort of stuff, another listener, Ian, took up the challenge. And we're pleased to report that it seems you would have made money from the bet so thank you Ian.

His message is reproduced below and the spreadsheet is available to download - just follow the link.

Download file

***

Good afternoon,

As Nick puts a lot of time in for us I decided to return the favour and work out his 80-20 stats.

The enclosed spreadsheet includes all the selections to date from the Web site.

I hope I have worked out the Points correctly as is a bit complicated for this time of night.

For a win I have doubled the points due to the place paying out so the 80% covers the ¼ odds.

For a place only 'win' I have deducted 20% of the points to cover the 20% loss for not winning.

Apologies if the points calculation is not 100% but it gives a good idea of how the strategy is progressing.

Hope it makes sense

All the best and thank you again for your wonderful insights and selections

Ian

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(3)

  1. Mike Osbourn | 15 November 2007

    Ian's 80/20 results.

    Hi Ian

    I'm affraid your results are wrong. If betting for place only using 80% of a point, the profit would be +12 points or there abouts. The total win bets add up to 44.58 points. However, when you subtract the 59 horses that didn't win, you are left with -14.42. Add the 12 place points, you're left with -2.42 points. In short, 23.42 points down on your figures.

    Based on that, I would advise against placing the 80/20 but go for 100% place only. Alternatively, you could always lay all selections and profit that way as well.

    Regards

    Mike

  2. esteh | 16 November 2007

    Good Evening Guys,

    I've followed Nick's 80-20 since Sept. 2007. For the last 2 months, I have managed to place 48 bets (excluding NR and misses due to my hectic workload) using Nick's selections. The Profit to date is 128 points (bet 10 points per race). During the said period of time, Nick has produced 9 winners, 4 seconds and 12 thirds.
    I am satisfied with these results.
    Keep it up, NIck!!!

    esteh

  3. Ian | 16 November 2007

    Hi Mike,
    The bet is not 80% of the win bet but 4x the win bet so a £10 bet is £2 win and £8 place.
    This means a place return is the same as the win less the 20% win stake. Therefore a place finish is 80%*odds of a points win.
    I have done the sheet using a £10 flat bet and it would have resulted in an overall profit of £53.49 which at the end of the day is the figure we are all most interested in.
    I could well be wrong in how I have worked out the points. If anyone has a better way please let me know or an easier way would be for me to remove the points and stick to overall cash position.

    What does everyone think?

    Regards
    Ian