A blank day yesterday means Alan's quest for winners continues at Goodwood and Redcar on Wednesday, with an in-running lay later in the evening...
"The horse wants a good pace to run at, and I think he is better on soft ground. Two starts back he traded at 1.3030/100 in-play at Chepstow, and I'm temped to throw in a real cheap lay to have a go at him."
Not a great week so far, and heading for the 2m5f Goodwood Stakes on Wednesday might lead some people to call me 'bonkers'. I always work on the basis that if you describe yourself as 'bonkers' then you are anything but...but I'll wear the wacky tie and zany socks just in honour.
The ground on Tuesday was nowhere near as soft as I thought it would be (time of first race meant essentially good), therefore the ticket on Burano was pretty much void yesterday. With drying conditions, Gavlar really comes in to the reckoning for the marathon test.
I remember being down at the tape start a few yeas ago watching the lovable rogue Romeo Montague, and it's some sight seeing 20-odd horses ambling around!
Gavlar might not be the Timeform squiggle horse that dear old Romeo was, but he definitely saves a bit for himself. That said, Goodwood can suit a tricky customer, and he's got a pretty good record at the track ranging from 1m6f to 2m - so we have no worries in him handling the Sussex Downs.
William Knight's runner has also given the impression he'll stay. It's been his target for the campaign, and I am happy having a go at 12/1.
16:05 Redcar - Back Mawaseel
I must admit I struggled with the rest of the Goodwood card, but there's a bet at Redcar that intrigues me.
Last term Mawaseel displayed the quirks that some Sea The Stars offspring can do, as he clearly wasn't concentrating in his races. He's been gelded, so he has one less thing to focus on, and the early prices chalked up for him at 7/1 looked big enough.
He's tried 1m4f a handful of times, and I'm not completely convinced about him over that distance. Wednesday's trip over two furlongs shorter might be ideal, and I'm open to the fact he might enjoy the soft ground. The two combined make him the each-way bet or back-to-lay trade.
He's from his lowest mark and has a new set of circumstances since his gelding op.
20:20 Leicester - Lay Great Expectations
Great Expectations' sire is called Storming Home, which makes this horse the worst ever case of 'nominative determinism' with a win record on turf of just one success in 32 attempts.
In-running alarm bells are currently going off - can you hear them?
The horse wants a good pace to run at, and I think he is better on soft ground. Two starts back he traded at 1.3030/100 in-play at Chepstow, and I'm temped to throw in a real cheap lay to have a go at him. He's well handicapped to win, and 6f is his best trip, but will he put everything in during a battle?
Wednesday's Recommended Bets
Back Gavlar to win @ 12/1 in the 14:00 at Goodwood (price on Sportsbook and promo race)
Back Mawaseel to win @ 8.07/1 in the 16:05 from Redcar
Lay in-running Great Expectations @ 1.251/4 in the 20:20 at Leicester
Weekly P /L (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Previous seven day P/L + 3.98
Total: + 14.70