It's the first day of the Glorious Goodwood festival, and Alan Dudman is hoping to get off to a good start on the Sussex Downs with a selection that trades around 30.029/1 to back...
"So can Tupi win the Lennox? His consistency should certainly get him in the frame. Remember he had some really solid juvenile form, and this year he has been underrated yet reliable."
14:00 Goodwood - Back Burano each-way
Overnight they were 10/1 the field, so you don't need me to tell you how open the 14:00 at Goodwood will be.
Nothing beats the feeling of picking out the victor on the first day of any festival to set you up for the week, and I'm going for a punt here as there's every chance Burano will be trading at around 30.029/1 in the win market.
Firstly the going is a bit of problem to figure out come race day, so I'm working on it being on the softer side, and one horse who loves juice in the ground is the selection. He scored at Newbury on a testing surface, and I think the large field will suit.
He's not the most consistent, dare I say frustrating, but I still think he is well handicapped on his form of 2014. He wants 1m2f with these conditions, so I'm prepared to chance him at such odds.
Looking at the prices, I can't believe Tupi is 8/1 to back, with Dutch Connection a lot shorter. Only one-and-half lengths separate them on their Jersey run, and there isn't an awful lot of value in backing the latter. The same comments apply to Toormore at just over 7/4 (which is a terrible price), I'll leave him alone as well, as I'm not sure he is quick enough these days over 7f.
So can Tupi win the Lennox? His consistency should certainly get him in the frame. Remember he had some really solid juvenile form, and this year he has been underrated yet reliable.
He beat a good horse of Godolphin's called Latharnach at Newmarket (who subsequently ran a stormer at Royal Ascot). He also picked up a Listed race at HQ last time over a mile - but the drop back in trip here is not a negative.
His trainer Richard Hannon mentioned him as a possible Lockinge horse for next season, but for today, he looks overpriced.
Tuesday's Recommended Bets
Back Burano @ 32.031/1 to win and 7.06/1 to place in the 14:00 at Goodwood (0.5 pt on each)
Back Tupi @ 8/1 in the 15:10 at Goodwood (price on Sportsbook and promo race)
Weekly P /L (one point each bet excluding advised in-running trades)
Previous seven day P/L + 3.98
Total: + 16.70